Willie's Way of the Warrior

Oh yes, you've been waiting for it and now here it is. Our guest columnist has temporarily backed out, and so I am stepping in to write on some fine MMA action. Since I am not half as knowledgable of a fan, and about one third the writer that Phil is, you're going to get a very different MMA column than you would have.

See, we were all set to have "Phil's Phists of Phury!" run every couple of weeks, and we may still get that in the future. Right now I, your humble Willie, will fill in until that AWESOMELY named column becomes a reality. Now there are dozens of MMA sites out there, and one or two of them are really great. Mmamania.com is my favorite, and Yahoo Sports' UFC coverage as well as Sherdog are all three excellent. Those sites will give you your inside info, breaking news, and more. HERE you will get a big fan's perspective on MMA on TV, going on in the business, and most importantly, what big fights are coming up and why you should be excited!

So to kick things off I want to talk to the people who like boxing but don't like mixed martial arts. Look, I grew up a boxing fan. I watched old fights of many of the greats. I was a George Foreman fan when I was 8. Boxing is dead though, baby. D -E - D. Let's think about the biggest boxing match this year, maybe in 5 years, De La Hoya - Mayweather. What a terrible, garbage boring, tapfest. People think MMA is boring sometimes because 2 fighters are on the ground and not slugging away? Yeah let's compare two brutes with tiny gloves that are attempting to either elbow each other's faces open so badly they can't see through the blood - or catch the other in a submission hold and break his arm at the elbow. Let's compare that to two cats who wear gloves with 3/4 lbs of padding, and attempt to either tap each other enough times to outscore the other, or hug him until the ref makes them stop groping one another.

Pretty easy to see which one is more exciting. That DeLaHoya - Mayweather fight was terrible and boring. It was point sparring, the sort of boring thing you quit when you're 11 and your Mom makes you take Tae Kwon Do. No one was trying to win through superior strength or just a violent imposition of will, they just wanted to love tap the other guy until the judges gave them a win. Boo.

Look, boxing died 20 years ago, or more. The promoters keep any real fights from happening, there's too many groups claiming the world champ, and the crookedness is too deep. Let's just declare boxing dead, and move on to a real combat sport.

And now for something completely different.

I like The Ultimate Fighter TV show, but I think we're seeing some tires and lug nuts starting to fly. (That means the wheels have come off, for you Yankee readers). It's still great to see fighters thrown into this pressure cooker, great to see elite fighters coaching newcomers, and great to see guys fighting not for a big purse, but just for the chance to fight on the big stage. So how could we make the show more exciting? Part of searching for unknowns means you're going to have some fighters that just won't pan out, and I just don't want to watch those guys. How about we take 8 of the top teams or gyms in the business and have them send in their top prospects? Team Quest, Militech FS, Couture's gym, etc. etc. could all send in a guy. This would seem to help out the scouting process a lot.

Next time, we talk about big fights coming up, and how happy we are that TV show writers are not writing.

Peek at the Pros

Let's get some discussion going on the NFL action. Given my mediocre record at picking the Pros vs the spread, you can tell me in the comments why I'm wrong to be so excited about these games.

Detroit @ Minnesota -3.5 = Lions getting worse, Vikes getting better. The O-line for the Vikings seems to make every RB look good, and their D improves each week. The Lions seem to be all tires and lug nuts -- wheels coming off.

NYJ +1.5 @ Miami = Lookit, I don't care how bad the Jets are, Miami is going to have to sign an RB off the street. They'll probably end up with one of those guys who models for video games and carries around a highlight clip of himself from Div II college ball.

Cleveland +1 @ Arizona = So after losing to the 49ers, the Cards are going to beat one of the best offenses in League. Yyyyyyeah.

SF +3 @ Carolina = This is a pick made mostly by me not believing Carolina, a QB-free team, can beat anyone.

Denver -3.5 @ Oakland = The Raiders are poop. Denver bounces back this week from a tough late loss to Chicago.

Tampa Bay +3 @ New Orleans = TB runs it well, and Nawlins can't stop the run. Their inconsistent O and whether Jeff Garcia can go for the Bucs will determine this pick. Right now I am going with the Buccaneers.

Last shot at college

Well we're just crashing here at the end of the season, making your comments even more important. A good discussion and a good consesns will make this final week a strong finish!

I'm going to pick EVERY game right now, we'll talk about them, and then at the end of the week I'll post the final picks that are worth playing.

VaTech -4.5 @ BC = BC does not like defenses that are aggressive, and their special teams are weak. BeamerBall is all about special teams and B-E-ing aggressive.

Tenn @ LSU -7.5 = At Knoxville, I would pick the Vols. I think LSU will win, but their D can give up points, and man can UT score them. In Atlanta though, I have to take the tigers. I'd like it a lot more at 6.5.

OrgSt @ Oregon off = Is the line up yet?

UCLA @ USC -20 = At USC, with no healthy UCLA QBs, with USC wanting to prove they're worthy of a Rose Bowl bid. Buh bye, Bruins.

BYU -14.5 @ SDSt = SD State is baaaaaaaad. BYU puts up poiiiiiiiiiiiiints.

Pitt @ WVu -28 = I hate lines this big. Say they're up 24 and put some starters on the bench? Of course, we saw what they did to UConn, and Pitt is doodoo compared to the Huskies.

OU @ Mizzou +3 = I love Bob Stoops, but I am blown away by Chase Daniels. I don't think OU's D can stop the Tigers from scoring any number of points, but certainly within 3 of the Sooners. Yes, I know they beat em before, but all the Mo is on Mizzou's side now.

AZ @ AZSt -6.5 = AZ has been coming on, but ASU handles them at home. I like this line.

Wash +13.5 @ Hawaii = The Rainbow Warriors can win, but not by 2 TDs. They have had close ones vs WAC foes, and even in an off year, the Huskies are still PAC 10 caliber.

Rivalry Week head start

This is where we start the discussion for the coming week. I like the following picks, but maybe not enough to play them just yet. We'll look more in depth as the week progresses. For now, you guys load up the comments with your opinions!


USC @ AZ St +3.5 Especially in Tempe, I just don't see how USC wins this game. Too green.

TX -5.5 @ A&M Earlier in the year, I thought this would be the only game the Aggies could win in November. As the season progressed, and Colt McCoy refused to start sucking as bad as I thought he would, and Fran found a way to suck even more than I thought he could, I just can't take the Aggies here. Texas is a much better team this year than last, and the Ags are at best the same, but most likely worse. Make room for Tubberville and $4 mil/season!

BoiseSt +4 @ Hawaii I have been looking forward to this matchup all season, and I've been saying that even with Colt Brennan in there the Warriors couldn't beat the Broncos. Now with Colt being concussed, I don't think the outlook is better for them. Note to Moms: naming your kid Colt is a guarantee of a concussion for him on a nationally televised college football game. (See also McCoy, Colt).

Mizzou @ Kansas -2 I believe in coach Mangiant!

UConn +17 @ Wvu I deeply loathe the Huskies cheating football team, but I have little confidence in the Mountaineers to win this game by more than 10.

Miami @ BC -14.5 I could be talked out of this one, but really, Miami is GAR- BIJJ.

UGA -3.5 @ GaTech This line is this low because it's a rivalry game, but the Dawgs are the 2nd hottest team in all of America (Kansas) with the 2nd best player in the sport (Tebow).

Oregon -2 @ UCLA Even sans-Dennis, UCLA can't keep up with the Ducks.

FSU @ Fla -13.5 Fsu just isn't so good, and Florida is. The spread is big though.

Clemson -3 @ SoCar I do like Spurrier (I do!) but Clemson is too much for them.

Report Card full of sadness and rage

Our first losing week of the entire college season! 5-6 in college, but in a painful way. 3 of those were by teams ahead in the score but not on the spread who knelt it out in the opponent's red zone! Yeah, that sucked. Sucking more would be picking a 4 game parlay, which has a reward of 10:1, picking the first 3 games right, then having the 4th game win by 5 when the spread was 6, and your team with the ball on the bad guys' 25 with 2 minutes left.

In the NFL, another week of not quite winning and just barely losing, at 3-3. We hopped on the Pats' bandwagon with Towelie just before kickoff. Adjusted for units, the NFL weekend was slightly on the + side.

Thanks to our friend the Paki for a hot NBA tip late Saturday. Houston - McGrady = mediocre.

Only a couple of weeks left to win in the college ranks, because I'm not a big fan of Bowl game point spreads. With the wide variance in time off, hard to find common points of comparison, etc. etc., bowl games are for suckers.

While we're at it, the bandwagon bets (defined as any game with 66% of public consensus on one side of the spread) was 9-6 this weekend. That 60% win rate is not too shabby. Maybe next week we'll just take the bandwagon bets and pick those games.

NFL Cash Trasher

I'm bitter about my first losing college FB weekend. So here's my NFL choices. You may pick opposite to assure yourself profit.

Cleveland -2.5 @ Baltimore

SD +3 @ Jax

TB -3 @ Atlanta

Washington @ Dallas -11

Pittsburg -9.5 @ NY Jets

Lemming Meringue Pie

Goodness. If there are as many upsets this weekend in college football as there are, say, every weekend the games are played, the odds makers will have a tasty treat. There are LOTS of bandwagon bets this 3rd weekend of November. Many of them are for favorites to cover HUGE lines. I mean I hate some of these teams folks are picking against, but do you really like Navy's offense enough to win by 16, for example? Good luck to public consensus I say, b/c I find several of my picks on this list.

FlaInt @ FLA -34 69%
Mizz -7 @ KState 71%
Idaho @ Boise St -33.5 71%
Wisc -13.5 @ Minn 72%
UtaSt @ NMxSt -8.5 68%
SdSt @ AirFc -11 69%
ULMon @ Bama -24.5 70%
UCF -12.5 @ SMU 67%
Marsh @ Hou - 11.5 66%
WMich @ Iowa -14 70%
NoIll @ Navy -16 68%
UAB @ Mem -11.5 66%
Cal -7 @ Wash 67%
NCSt @ Wake -6 67%
OSU -14 @ Bay 70%

Get behind before the weekend starts!!!

I still have to tally my results from last week but you can assume that I had worse results than a blind man in an archery contest. I might as well dump all of the teams in a hat and pick games that way to get around a 50% win rate. But that's not why you're picking against me, now is it?

Weekend College Football anti-picks:

Missouri -7 @ K-State: Now that I'm betting against them, the sheep-lovers are going to pull out a new strand of barbed wire fence.

Bowling Green pk @ Buffalo: I'm on Willie's BG bandwagon here.

LSU -19.5 @ Ole Miss: LSU wants to maintain their BCS status.

Central Florida -12.5 @ SMU: SMU blows. That is all.

the 'waving wheat' OK State -14 @ Baylor: Baylor sucks at home, on the road, in a waco brothel, wherever...

Louisville +8.5 @ South Florida: Groethe just had a mental meltdown. S Florida may win, but will not cover

Marshall @ Houston -11.5: We... are.... a horrible football team!

Please remember to support your local offshore bookie this weekend!

Friday Funds Freezer

Mizz -7 @ KState

Kentucky @ UGA -7.5

Bowling Green @ Buffalo pk

PSU @ MSU +3

Wisconsin -13.5 @ Minnesota

Marshall @ Houston -11.5

OK jr. -15 @ Baylor

WVa -6.5 @ Cinci

OU -8 @ Texas Tech

Maryland +7.5 @ FSU (and under 45)

LSU -19.5 @ Ole Miss

That's right, I took an awful lot of road teams, and a whole lot of favorites too this week.

Early look at the underpaid football players

My college pickem prowess now frightens medium sized invertebrates and small Italian stereotypes across the land. Follow me, or sorrow in your failure to do so.

A few early looks, some of which will certainly see the lines move as soon as these open in broad release.

Mizzou -7.5 @ KState - The same KState that just lost by 294 to Nebraska.

Kentucky @ Georgia - 8 - Let's compare UK to Auburn, who just lost by 20 between the hedges.

Bowling Green -1.5 @ Buffalo - I know you still don't know who the Falcons, are, but there are 2 teams I have not picked wrong one single time this season. I'm 4-0 with BG.

Duke @ ND -5 - I'm still looking into this one, but wanted to get it up here for discussion. I hate the Irish, but Duke?

PSU @ MSU +3 - Sparty doing well late, barely lost to Michigan. Their record vs. common opponents is most compelling here for the Spartans.

Wisconsin -13.5 @ Minnesota - You know, the 1-10 Golden Gophers.

Marshall @ Houston -11.5 - Check out scores vs. common opponents. And don't forget the Thundering Terd's general suckitude.

OK State -15 @ Baylor - Baylor gives up late in the season, and OSU is mad. I think 19.5 would be a better line.

WVa -6 @ Cinci - This is all kinds of tough to pick. All kinds of stats justify picking both teams, so I'll just go with Slaton and White.

OU -9.5 @ Texas Tech - Tech is poo in November. Bob Stoops' Sooners are not.

NFL Pickem

Five games get the I-like-em! seal of doom this week.


Buffalo -3 @ Miami - I won't belabor justifying picking against the Phins.

Atl +4 @ Car - Atlanta might be bad, but the Panthers are even worse at QB and RB. Ewww.

Dal -1 @ NYG - That's right, early in the week it was -1. You have it at -2.5 don't you?

Det +1 @ AZ - The Lions are the only team keeping me from going ohfer each week.

Indy -3.5 @ SD - I love the Bolts, but Indy played the Pats to +4. Do we figure the Chargers are 7.5 points as good as the Patriots? No.

Time to poop or get off the pot: College FB edition

For this week's Friday Funds Freezer, you'll note that earlier in the week, picks were suggested. Now it is time to decide which ones are worthy of official pick status. Only Jarod decided to leave his comment in the comments (those of you who keep emailing me your thoughts are sort of missing the point of this format), but I know several of you are following my picks. I intend to not only maintain my success rate, but improve it this week!

You'll notice that some of the earlier looks are gone, and some new games are here. That's what happens when you look at em all week.

BG -3.5 @ EMich Just have faith in the research. I know you don't know who Bowling Green is.

IU -1.5 @ NW This line has moved to 2.5 almost everywhere, so i'm off it. But for the record, I like it a lot at -1.5.

UMich -2.5 @ Wisc I also like the over 46.5 here.

TAMU +18.5 @ Mizzou This has gone to 19.5, and I have decided I just can't play this game either way. DIE Fran, DIE!

GaTech @ Duke +13.5 You guys can haw haw all you want, but the Blue Devils cover this one. I will go even further out on the limb and call this under 46.

Auburn +1 @ UGa This has gone to +2. You bet against Tuberville's SEC road record, I won't. War Eagle!

Kentucky @ Vandy +3.5 This is the best year for the Commodores since... since I've been old enough to love SEC football, I think. I love me some Vanderbilt this week, and I love me some under 57.5 here too.

Texas Tech @ Texas -6.5 We do need villains to make any contest interesting, and these two teams excel at generating hatred. I hate Tech more this week. Horns can hook the raiders by 7.


(Please come to Aggieland, Tommy!)

UVa +3.5 @ Miami Last game in the Orange Bowl? Who cares! Does anything about the recent generation of UM kids suggest they're big fans of tradition, respect, or nostalgia? Ha! The Cavaliers win outright I says, and I also says under 41.5.
(Pic of Miami fighting FIU from usatoday.com)

UF -6.5 @ SoCar - I'm tempted to say over 59.5, but I'm staying off the totals here. The Ol' Ball Coach losing by 7 is plenty to pick here. Tee-boe has plenty to prove.

KU - 5.5 @ Ok State - You can boil this down to is Kansas 3 points better than Texas? Yes.

FrsSt +17.5 @ Hawaii - Hawaii wins, but not by 17.5 over the Bulldogs. You guys would rather not bet at all than bet on a dog. You can't win playing the favorites all your life, boys!

What I meant to Say... CALI edition

As Willie mentioned earlier, I am in California, Costa Mesa to be exact. When you hear 'Orange County' you expect the air to be fresh and the scenery to be beautiful:


The scenery is beautiful, especially at the mall I just came from. However, the smog from LA seeped its way down here and so I'm having trouble even looking at the screen in front of me.

To the point: I meant to say VATECH @ GATECH. There is no ref bashing on this one, I just have to pay Willie the 2.50 I owe him from having any faith in the Yellowjackets.

Now that I have had another stellar 1-4-1 week, I'm going to move onto another topic: POKER at the Commerce in LA. The only Casino I'd been to West of Missouri was in Vegas, and never have I seen so many poker tables. It's too bad I had to sit down at the rigged one.

So my short story begins with the gentleman 2 to my right. I use that term loosely, by the way. Turns out the dude was an early 20's community college student that was hoping to get into film school at USC. I told him he should just turn it in after the piss poor acting he did at the table. Yes, it is surprising that the trip Kings you smooth called on the flop are STILL there on the turn. I fold.

Here is our initial conversation:

Him: Dude, where did you get that shirt?
Me: Uh, Dillards I think.
Him: What's that?
Me: A department store.
Him: Ah, man, how much did it cost?
Me: Um, I dunno, maybe forty bucks.
Him: Oh man, I get everything from Goodwill

Yeah, including your poker play.







Anyways, I did pretty piss poor, worse than him because I didn't go on a bulletproof winning streak in my last 10 mintues. I was about as useless at that table as a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.

College Picks for this upcoming weekend (I promise I'll put some NFL picks up too later):
Uconn +5 @ Cincinnati: I don't care if Huskies are not natural football players (they tend to prefer round balls [get your mind out of the gutter]) I cannot fathom why Cincinnati would even be remotely considered to be a favorite here. Now that you know my pick, you can confidently bet Cincinnati.

Auburn +1 @ Georgia: Georgia is a public favorite, and we all know that Tuberville has brought his team back around. I know, you already bet Auburn and now you want to change it since I like them. Just change your $100 bet around to a $200 bet on Georgia... you'll only lose the $10 in juice.

Kansas State -7 1/2 @ Nebraska: Look, K State lost to a 1-8 team last week, but Iowa State has played everyone hard, including Oklahoma, so you shouldn't lose faith in the sheep lovers yet. I think Nebraska's going to end up with their head caught in a barbed wire fence this week.

Virginia Tech -6 1/2 vs Florida State: Florida State is garbage. I don't care if they beat BC, BC has been lucky garbage the whole year and was vulnerable. Get on VATECH if you haven't already, especially since it is in Blacksburg.

So that's it for the Cali edition. I guess I'm in the OC, but I don't feel any snobbier than I normally am. Maybe I'm high from all the smoke in the air. I need some Doritos.


By the way, if any of our 10 readers live somewhere in LA, you should consider going to the Sandpiper in Laguna Beach tomorrow night for Reggae night. If you want to see me get slapped in the face by about 15 women, you know you've come to the right place.

Early look at the underpaid football players

These are the lines that look bad to me on first glance. These are not final picks, just the ones I want to put up for YOU to discuss, throw rocks at, jump on board with, and generally discuss. As always, I use common opponents, average points for/against, recent record, injury reports, and a couple of other s00per sekrit statistics to make my picks. So here's what I think for this week: I think college players in revenue sports should be allowed stipends.

Oh, yeah the games!

Ohio -3 @ Akron

BG -3.5 @ EMich

IU -1.5 @ NW

UMich -2.5 @ Wisc

TAMU +18.5 @ Mizzou

KState -7.5 @ Neb

GaTech @ Duke +13.5

Auburn +1 @ UGa

Texas Tech @ Texas -6.5

UVa +3.5 @ Miami

UF -6.5 @ SoCar

KU - 5.5 @ Ok State

FrsSt +17 @ Hawaii

Report Card

It's that time again, and if you are not following my college football picks you are a FOOL!

Last weekend, including Thursday's VaTech underdog pick, Willie went 6-3-1 vs the spread. Stupid Wake Forest misses a game winning field goal, UConn continues to confound me, and a tropical storm in Boston (what?!) kept us from perfection.

In the NFL, I logged one of my few winning weekends. Of course, even a flipped coin comes up heads 5 of 8 sometimes, so you should continue picking against me in the NFL.

Tomorrow we'll bring in our early look at the college games, see how the bandwagon bettors did, and we'll check in with Towelie to see how his visit to California is going.

I'm too excited to write much today, the Internets are abuzz with news of Fran's firing from Aggieland! I guess he shouldn't have granted us that exclusive interview.

The Dignity of Dennis

Oh man, I am dead. I am deader than one of Mike Vick's... ah Dennis don't go there. I am SCREWED like a phillips' head.

Stupid boosters. 'Make sure you keep the newsletter quiet', I told them. Rednecks couldn't listen.

Oh well, I will land on my feet. I am FRAN. That's right, Dennis has a plan. Fran is a BRAND, and I can sell a brand name.

I put players in the LEAGUE. Anyone ever heard of LaDanian Tomlinson? Who coached him? This guy! Reggie McNeal? This gu... wait, what? backup WR? Jail? Released? Oh.

Well frankly I don't know what these psychotic Aggies want. Every year I get us to a bowl, isn't that enough? I should be coach of the year for even getting eligible with this bunch. I mean they want me to compete to win the conference? Look, I'm getting the finest 2A and 3A talent from across the state. After Texas, OU, and LSU raid the good schools, I just don't have the horses to run in the Big 12. I mean I beat Tech, isn't that something? Well, I don't actually beat them on the field, but we usually end up with a better record, anyway. Everyone knows we'll get stuck in a bowl we're way overmatched in because 2 of the teams above us will get bumped to BCS bowls, and we'll end up playing the SEC #7. Stuck like chuck, that's us.

I mean how do you coach against ARMY?!?!? They're heroes, for goodness' sakes. I tried to lose to em, then that electro shock chip Byrne made the veterinarian hospital put in me went off... is he communist?!? Who schedules Army at a time like this then wants me to win?!? I showed that jerk though. I pooched it up real good that season, lost all kinds of games, got the heat under him to fire me, then BLAM! Colt McCoy, meet turf. Turf, Colt. You boys acquainted? Ha! Eat that Mr Byrne. Fire me now? I just beat t.u.!

Alright Dennis, focus! You have got to start thinking about where you can sell the Fran Brand next. Boise State? No way; I hate blue turf, and they might want 10 wins on occasion. Wyoming, perfect! White guys are fast enough to play defense there. I'll be GOLD.

I dunno what the big deal with the newsletters was anyway. Everyone knows I'm on a handcart heading out of here on greased rails, ol Franny Fran needed some QUESO before they run me out of TEJAS! What sort of people pay thousands for information on a 19 year old's groin tear status? Freak show boosters. Some bohunk that patented velcro, or builds skyscrapers in Houston, or owns all the oil wells in Navasota, these guys show FRAN the green to tell 'em Tyrone JoJack from Tinybutt, Texas has a strained pinky toe and is moving to 4th string LB? What else could I do?

BOOM. SELL IT.

Fran is all about selling Fran. That is Dennis' motto. Motto, I like that word. I'm going to make more of those stupid wristbands and make the team wear em again. This time they'll say "MOTTO", and 20,000 kids will pay $1 each for em this time too. SELL IT. Fran you're a genius.

Oh yeah, they may think I'm in trouble, but remember back at TCU? LaDanian ran all over that weak sauce of Conference USA, and what did ol' Fran do? Did I stay in Horny Toad Central, where they expected me to win after the best player in 30 years left? FRAN knew it was time to move on. 'RING RING, Tuscaloosa! I hear you're desperate to stop sucking, and you're easily impressed by me beating the worst run defenses in America with the next Jim Brown. You're looking for a head coach? What? No, but I play one on TV!' BOOM. Roll Tide? Roll FRAN. SELL IT.

I am a marketing MACHINE. "Hello, Aggieland? Bama here lost some scholarships before I got here, I had one halfway good season, and I do not like the view from here. These hosses in the SEC are tough on mediocrity. I hear y'all are mad at ol' RC, and that you like running teams. I got 2 words for you. ELL TEE. Yeah I can bring another one to CS just like him! Uh... well... because I used to coach in Texas!" BOOM. SELL IT.

Then I got here and found out RC recruited Vince Young Jr.? Oh even I can get 7 wins with that guy. And you know what seven wins means? It is extension time! "Well hello, board of regents! I hear you're running low on FRAN and it's time to restock!" BOOM. SELL IT.

Stupid Stoops. Everyone who ever tied a shoe on his staff is winning somewhere now. Bob, you can't sprinkle a little of that magic Sooner dust my way, you fairy?

What bowl can I get into with 6 wins? Need a bowl game to get a new job. What kind of bowl does 6 wins get you? The Emerald Nuts Bowl? Awesome. I can't sign anyone from Cali, not in my happiest dreams. There's a wasted trip. Plus I can't beat a team like FSU. Stupid Bowden's been an animated corpse with a robot brain for 4 years now and he still outcoaches me.

Wait, I got it! I'll finish with 7 wins and beat Texas. Oh yeah, that gives me my exit strategy. I learned it last year. I can make a good exit and screw the Aggies all at once. Watch how bad I lose to Stoops this weekend. Point spread is 21? Hahahahaha! We'll be down that in the first half. Ever wonder why I'm still running the option down 3 scores in the 3rd? Oh that's right, ol' Dennis knows the spread. Now the line will move huge against the horns.

Guess why no one can find that money from the newsletters? Three words: OFF.SHORE.BOOKIE. Let Stoops kick our butts until that line goes big against the Horns, then rise up and cash IN. Fran coasts out loser the rest of the season, then finishes with 7 wins. We'll lose to Sylvester Croom in the Valtrex Itchy Crotch Bowl on December 23rd, and then those Caribbeans send me the check. Choke on some of that, Byrne!

FRAN will land on his feet. I will sell some angry school on FRAN. I'll tell em if I lose a game I'll coach it for free! They don't need to know deep down I am all about the SKRILLA. That's how I think of it anyway. These Aggies pay me $300,000 per WIN, and the losses are free. That's what happens when you can market FRAN! Did you like that game against Montana state this year Ags? $300,000 for that 38-7 drubbing we put on em. Oh man no one hated ol Dennis when we started out 3-0. Louisiana Monroe, need more of those. Maybe I can get us to move conferences. They boo me when I lose to Miami on TV? It was free! Who can be mad about that? Boo when I lose to Tech again on TV? to OU? to... wait do I ever win on TV? Oh wait, Fresno State! That'll be $300K please! Stick that in your hullabaloo canecks!

Well, Aggieland has not been kind to FRAN, but watch what this loss to OU does. It's about a lot more than manipulating lines, it is about SCORCHED EARTH. Let someone try to recruit after I'm done here! This cow college, did they really think I'd do any better than RC? All he did was recruit one big name a year, then hand out scholarships to walk ons. If they thought the cupboard was bare after him, I will show them bare. Baylor is about to get a surge in "possession receivers" and "hard working defensive backs" I can tell you that.

Somewhere, a team is so angry, with boosters so rich, they'll hire me. I am a marketing GENIUS, and I sell FRAN. Gig that!

(image courtesy of www.southerngent.org)

OVER-RATED

I live in a part of Texas where the bandwagon is completely orange. I'm not talking about the citrus variety of orange, which actually has a pleasant tone; I am referring to the orange that looks like it came out of an armadillo's rear end. I don't even know why it is called "burnt". I've burnt several t.u. hats, jerseys, shirts, skirts, pants, collectible ballpoint pens, crocs, jock straps, etc. and they always have an ashy-red appearance when they come out of my barbecue pit.

I don't mind if you want to cheer for a school in your area. In fact, I applaud your loyalty, if it is done in good taste. The one thing I don't want to hear about, however, is how many national championships your school has won. Especially if they were all won before you became a fan. This defense of your "team" is about as well put together as the one your lawyer put together to get you off of those cocaine charges. You got something on your nose there, buddy.

My point is this: Oklahoma State, a better shade of orange as their advertisements put it, is going to kick the ever living poop out of t.u. tomorrow. If the favorite was any more overrated, we would have to get Roger Clemens to quarterback the first half for $25 million. I would say OSU +3, but I'm going to have to take the money line here.


Some other overrated teams that have made us cringe over the years:

1. Notre Dame: By far the worst. Rudy was a good movie, your team is not. The only reason Notre Dame is on TV every week is because Charlie Weiss got Tony Roma's to sponsor his halftime meals. MMMMM RIBBBBS!!!

2. USC. I know they have won their share of national championships, but if I hear the name 'John David Booty' ONE more time on TV, the Best Buy Protection plan will have to be ready.

There is so much material here that I would hate to squander it on a Friday night when I am supposed to be out partying... so I am going to ask for comments on OVERRATED teams, including but not limited to any team that has thousands of bandwagon followers. I'm sure we can collectively come up with a few...

Towelie

Lopsided Lemming Action

In our second week of looking at games in which the public has gone overwhelmingly to one side, we notice one thing. NONE of these bets (which for our purposes are games in which over 66% of the action is on one side), not ONE of them are underdogs. Amarillo Slim said in his book Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People that most people would rather not bet at all than to bet on an underdog. This trend of bandwagon betting would seem to bear out his supposition.

Whether it's people's desire to associate themselves with a winner, nerves at betting a bad team will be able to cover, or maybe the only people playing these games are fans of the teams excited at the chance to pound a weak opponent, these games are being overwhelmingly played on the favorites.

This week we'll track the games with over 2/3 of the action on them, and we'll update the results after the weekend.

Ball State @ IU -7 - 69%
Clemson -16 @ Duke - 73%
Texas Tech -20.5 @ Baylor - 66%
Mizzou -4 @ Colorado - 69%
FL Int @ ArkSt - 17.5 - 66%
Mich -4 @ MSU - 69%
Army @ Air Force -16.5 - 67%
MidTenn -4 @ ULMon - 67%
Marshall @ CenFL -13.5 - 73%
ULaLa @ UTenn -27.5 - 69%
CMich @ Tol -8 - 69%
FSU @ BC -6.5 - 69%
ILL -12 @MINN 67%
Wazzou @ Cal -14.5 - 68%
SMU @ Houston -19 - 65%

That's a whopping fifteen contests with more than twice the players on one side of the game than the other. Conventional wisdom suggests oddsmakers want all games to be 50/50 so they can profit off the juice. I think it's more reasonable to suggest that the oddsmakers know when the public is too in love with certain teams, and they set a huge line and let the public hope their crush will cover it.

Another point you may notice: four of the games I picked for the weekend appear on this list. Doh!

Pros before Hos

Let's continue to prove how bad I am at picking the NFL. There are 8 games with a line that didn't scare me away from 'em, so here's 8 chances to be wrong.

Car @ Ten-4 Carolina doesn't even have an uninjured QB.

Cin @ Buf +1 Buffalo has alllllmost beaten 2 good teams, and the Bengals are not one of those. I could be making this pick because I feel sorry for Buffalo.

GB -1.5 @ KC Towelie can get all mad if he wants, but I'm not sure how the 'Chefs' are given a chance to hang with the Pack. This virtually gurantees I'm wrong. UPDATE: Found out Bubba Franks is out, and Sean Salisbury picked GB. I now choose the Chiefs.

SD -7 @ Min How exactly will the Vikes score enough to stay with 7 of the Bolts? They're talking to Jeff Hostetler about coming in to play QB. I wish that were my joke, but it isn't.

Was -3.5 @ NYJ Again, the Skins have offense and the Jets don't. Pennington is the best QB there and he's on the pine. I'd like it a lot more at -3, but there we are.

Sea @ Cle -1 Cleveland is at home and Seattle, while I like them, has issues. Shaun having a hurt wing and a retired FB is not a recipe for success on the road.

Hou +3 @ Oak The Texans are close every week, and Oakland is not. I may be making this pick because I like Houston.

Dal +3 @ Phi This seems so obvious it it clearly a trap. I may be making this pick because I'm terrible at picking the NFL. Also, if anyone remembers the way Tony Dungee's family tragedy made the Colts not win the Superbowl a coupla years ago, I think Andy Reid's recent troubles will hurt the Iggles here too.



Just a small reminder, we look at the spread for entretainment purposes only. If you actually bet these games, you will lose some, then bet more chasing it, and then you can't relax and enjoy the games. It's more fun to talk about it than to throw cash away at it.

Friday Fund Freezer

I know it's Thursday. Stick it. I'm putting this out on Thursday because I'm picking tonight's game. Thursday Thund Theezer just doesn't sound right.

Rather than rehashing why I like these picks, I'll just post em, and indicate how much of the betting public agrees with me on them. If you'll remember, the bandwagon picks went 9-12 last week.



VaTech +2.5 @ GaTech - 62%

Wake -1 @ UVa - 51%

Thanks to the Japsican for the Clemson and Michigan picks. Unless they lose, and then it's tempura burritos and high math scores and tequila jokes.

Michigan -4 @ MSU - 68%

Clemson -16 @ Duke - 74%


Iowa +1 @ NW - 53% and it's moved to 1.5.

TT -21 @ Baylor - 66%

Mizzou -4 @ Col - 69%

Rutgers +3 @ UConn - 49%, and we're down to +2. Shoulda grabbed it Tuesday.

FSU @ BC -6.5 - 69%

A&M @ OU -21 - 50%, thus confirming my belief that at least half the public is insane.

I really don't like how popular my picks are. I would not play any of these except the 50-50 one if I were you.