Wednesday, October 31, 2007

College Football Wednesday.. Because anything is better than the NBA

I just realized the NBA season started yesterday. Well, onto football.

Virginia Tech @ GA Tech -2.5. I must reiterate this point until the refs stop cheating... Do NOT bet against a home team on the East Coast on a Thursday night, be it ACC, Big East, Little 10 conference, whatever. Why would it not be rigged? Great point, ME. Let's just pretend stats don't matter for a minute... oh wait, they don't. Don't take a NO. 13 team when the oddsmakers are giving them points, it's a cardinal rule.

Vanderbilt +14 @ Florida. Why is no one giving this Vandy team any respect? The only blowout game they've encountered is at a tough Auburn stadium when they were unprepared. I realize the Swamp is a tough place to play, but Florida has only stepped up to competition that is "better" than them. Gator boots it is.

Texas @ Oklahoma State +3. Colt McCoy has been laid out more times this season than Willie's mom in a meat packing plant. This trend will continue where OSU plays well at home.

Kansas State -14 @ Iowa State. Don't overlook this game, where the sheep lovers will venture into Ames, where Corn Cobs, not diamonds, are a girl's best friend. ISU played OU hard, but don't count on it again.

Mizzou -3.5 @ Colorado. I really, really like this one, which means you shouldn't. The Mizzou team is strong & focused while Colorado just randomly beats people, which has moved the line down. This will be a very predictable game, with the total being under 57 also... Mizzou 34-20.

Just for kicks, Nebraksa +18.5 @ Kansas. Kansas will score 31. It's just up to Nebraska to score 1 TD and 2 field goals.

Why is the NBA season so damn long anyways? Now that we are the end of October, the BEST month of the year by far, they've decided to ruin the rest of the fall by showing basketball. If I wanted to see this many bricks I would build a damn house. Don't get me started on the WNBA, either. The NBA was thankful that it lost the 'worst league' designation when that travesty started up. I'm about to switch to the English Cricket Tour on ESPN 15.

Another column, perhaps funnier, hopefully coming tomorrow.

Mid Week Fantasy Fantasies


Today is the day the injury reports come out, and the day most of us set our fantasy lineups for the weekend. So Wednesday will be the day we look in on fantasy football each week, and you will get the information you need to win your matchups!

Look, every website and every sports channel is choking on fantasy sports tips, who to sit or start, and who is your best desperation waiver wire grab. So what can your humble Priapism Pickem writers offer you that you can't get somewhere else?

We have the Fantasy Fantasies! This is the inside info you dream of, that little edge that you can get over your friends. Check here every week and we'll provide you with the strategies and tips that'll make those daydreams you have, when you're sitting in your office all bored, about crushing your fantasy sports opponents come true!

This week we will deal with the most fun, yet least written about aspect of fantasy sports competition: psychological warfare. The dozens of magazines and hundreds of sites touting fantasy shortcuts to victory never mention this obviously vital topic. Why is that?

That's because the average fantasy sports writer is the modern day Dungeons & Dragons player, finally having found a way to exert some "control" over all the big mean jocks who made his life miserable back in the day. What better way to prove how much smarter you are than to decide what jock gets to play and which one doesn't, and even better get other people to believe it?

Well, I'm not all hater, because these egghead analysts have their uses. I certainly don't want to research every little detail about my 3rd WRs tendencies on grass vs turf, home and away, vs this cornerback, with that guy's past performance on every surface under ever condition. But what good does that really do YOU? Everyone else in your league has access to Hector and Victor's predictions too. So where's the edge? There's not one. And you ain't getting this kind of edge from the sort of guy who looks at sports like a video game.

Let's get beyond that boring numbers stuff, and get into the next phase in fantasy sports competition. You must attack your opponents, not just hope that whichever lineup you end up selecting (and isn't that email your friends to see which TE you should start working out great?) gets you the W.

This is a subtle art, but it's the only way you can hope to achieve victory - and beyond victory, crushing the souls of your opponents (who are presumably your friends or coworkers, and clearly humiliating them will have no future negative consequences). Let's get our hands dirty, shall we?

1. No one can trade but you.

Etiquette is huge here. Stop having any. Vote against EVERY trade. Email people individually and act as though you and he are the only ones who are smart enough to see that every trade is collusion! Not everyone will agree, but enough will be weak. Then use the league email function to send a league wide email informing all the players that on the pending trade between Bubba's Ballas and Miguel's Cleverly Disguised Phallic/Sports Reference All Stars looks suspicious. Then announce that rather than lodging a formal request for a veto vote, you'd like to give Bubba and
Miguel a chance to do the right thing and take down the trade. Tell them a close friend has told you in confidence that Bubba admitted there's some cash on the side, or some other arrangement to secure this obviously lopsided deal.

Now this won't work at first. It's important that the more people ask you about this the more you refuse to name your source. After all, we're mostly friends in this league, and you don't want to start a silly fight over a fantasy trade, right? Sure! Now the guys making the trade will immediately suspect one of their inner circle. There's always a weak link, and everyone who ignored your private email will now suspect someone else of having participated. Someone else will ask for a vote, the veto will follow, and you get to look like the good guy!

The mistrust and confusion you'll have sown with these methods will soon yield dividends. The first trade that gets voted down for no good reason will result in bitterness. No one will be able to make any moves except the one guy who everyone thinks is on their side.

2. The Whipping Boy method

There's one guy in the league that everyone thinks is a little crazy. You needed a 12th, he's your brother in law, or in your office and overheard the cool guys talking about a league, or whatever. His comments are weird, he drafts kickers in the 3rd round, he's just odd.

Constantly defend him in the forum. Keep everyone from publicly being too mean to him. Then get in touch with him privately and encourage his erratic behavior. Tell him how funny you think his completely bizarre comments are. Then provide a target for him with a little personal info on your nearest competition.

The more uncomfortable you make the guys in your league, the less likely they are to be online when you need to be there to snap up some great free agents! Less frequent visits to the site by your enemies = success for you!

You thought Whipping Boy meant for you to whip people into submission? Oh that's schoolkid stuff man. You are going to use someone else to emotionally defeat the enthusiasm of those who would challenge for your throne!

3. Constantly complain about the rules

Give a loser an excuse for losing, and he'll find a way to accommodate you. Don't just whine though, that creates bad will. Suggest changes for next season at the beginning of the current season. Foment as much discontent as you can without actually complaining. "Hey, you guys ever think that this category is too random, and not a real measure of skill?" Another good tactic is to find out who voted for what categories, then play both sides off against each other. Sow division, plant discord, and reap victory!

Employ these tactics properly, and your friends will never blame you for their lack of fun. their lack of fun will be your gain of glory, however, as they stop paying close attention to your league. Remind them that their other leagues may be more fun, and while they're not focused on you, you can scoop up all the good matchups. Your fantasy fantasies will come true with these fail safe tactics!

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Early look at the underpaid football players

The NCAA should cut the players in on the giant money pie the oligarchy stuffs itself with. Greedy jerks! I can't see how allowing a bunch of undereducated, high testosterone guys who've been puffed up their whole lives and are surrounded by people who never tell them no and let them define their self worth purely by their value as athletes in on straight cash payments could lead to any problems, could it?

Well here's the beginning of the week line peeks. I am taking the team I show points on. A disturbing number of road teams this week.

VaTech +2.5 @ GaTech

Wake -1 @ UVa

Iowa +1 @ NW

TT -21 @ Baylor - It could be -35 and I might still not take the Bearlies. If I coached for this team I might pee on the bar too.

Texas @ OSU +3 - OSU plays tough at home, and Texas just does not impress.

Mizzou -4 @ Col

Rutgers +3 @ UConn - UConn is a lot of bad calls, some cheating, and a lot of rain and mud away form having 3 more losses. I may be making this pick b/c I still sting over Rutgers beating USF and b/c I really, really hate cheating UConn. Be warned.

Tulsa -6.5 @ - Tulane The Green Wave is 1-4 at home. And they're called the Green. Wave. Enough.

FSU @ BC -6.5 - FSU = poo. BC is at home. Does anyone think FSU is anywhere close to as good as VaTech at home? What was the score in that game? And now BC is at home.

A&M @ OU - 21 I am a little leery of this line, given the Aggies' habit of holding the ball for a long time. Let's bear in mind 2 historical facts that are on point here: first, Coach Fran's comfort with The Suck. Fran comforts the Suck, and takes it with him whenever he coaches. Point #2 is the history of angry revenge blowouts these teams have. Adding in McGee being slightly dinged up, the Ags' total lack of defense vs. the forward pass, and this smells like a lock.

What do you think? What picks are crazy, and which are brilliant? Do you have a great pick I missed?

Report Card

The grades are in, and once again it seems picking the NFL utterly eludes me. 4-5 for the weekend.

College football continues to be not so tough. If not for STUPID South Florida deciding a turnover or a penalty would be the best thing to do inside the opponent's red zone, I'd have had my best week of the season. 5-2 still ain't too shabby! I hope everyone jumped on that Troy pick. Those Trojans really tore up... wait. The Trojans really penetrated the opposing... no wait. Ah, let's just say go Troy!

All the cool kids are doing it!


My NFL record is terrible vs. the spread. However, the teams with over 60% of public support went 5-1. What would you give up if YOU could go 5-1? Only the Giants failed to cover. Musta been the bangers and mash.

We'll keep track of this, but right now just following the crowd seems smarter than doing research, watching games, and making your own picks.

Monday, October 29, 2007

It's on TV.. so you have to bet it!

I'm going to be totally honest and say that I would never bet this football game if it was a Sunday noon game. I think I might end up switching to rubbing alcohol halfway through the game to kill the pain. It will most likely be a battle of wills, with Brett Favre needing to exercise his in the 3rd quarter.

This is what this game is going to look like:





All said and done, however, the Broncos are going to win this one. They seem to be clicking on all cylinders, while GB is not, and the one-dimensional Pack are going to eat it on the road. By 'it' I mean whatever the guy in the picture had for lunch for the past 10 years.

Broncos -3 Prediction: 24-17

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Over the Cliff!!!

Sadly my friends, the college football weekend is over. In our never ending search for trends, we're tracking the games that weren't even close to 50/50 in public support. Last week there were 12 games which had at least 60% of the action on one side.

Interestingly, NONE of this heavy support was on the side of an underdog. Bandwagon indeed!

So how did these overwhelmingly popular one sided bets do? They went 9-12. That's right. Kind of flies in the face of conventional wisdom stating oddsmakers want all the action balanced with the lines, doesn't it? It seems when bettors get all worked up into a lather, they miss. Well, so far we have a very small sample size, so we'll keep track of this for you. For now though, just finding what teams have 60%+ of public support is not the path to success.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Bandwagon Betting in the Pros

Much like the lemming post for the college set, here we'll take a quick look at the NFL action. Only 13 games, and just over half of them are stunningly close to 50/50 in the minds of the masses. The remaining 6 matchups have over 60% of the action leaning one way. Let's look in.

CLE -3 @ STL 65% of the action says the winless Rams don't get within 3. I personally think the Rams win this one outright.

IND -6.5 @ CAR This is a really, really big number. 82% of you call the linesmakers crazy, saying one TD is not enough of a handicap to stop the Peyton Monster.

NYG -9.5 @ MIA This one's in London, and the Phins' problems are well documented. A team as inconsistent as the Giants makes me leery of a line that big, but 68% of you think I'm a vag.

PIT -3.5 @ CIN The Bungles are back, and 61% of you side with Steeley McBeam and his creepy gayness.

HOU +9.5 @ SD What smoke? Finally the bandwagon rolls for a home team, the only one this week to get such overwhelming support! 63% for the Bolts.

NO -2 @ SF I must say, I strongly agree with the 64% of you that are playing the Saints this week.

Now that the Lopsiders have been noted, let me sneak in my NFL picks. My season loss rate is staggering so far, so I'll shove these in at the bottom of this post, and maybe no one will notice.

Rams +3
Indy -6.5
Vikings +1
Pitt -3.5
Bucs -3.5
Saints -2

So now you know who to bet on; opposite me is the path to glory!

Friday, October 26, 2007

The Lemmings are running!

The weekly feature in which we examine where the money is on the football lines. Even with the point spread, sometimes the betting public gets heavy on one side of a contest. I will bring you these games, let you know where the groupthink is stuck, and ask you what you think. Then we'll track em after they play and see if the lemmings went off the cliff or not.

Houston -6 at UTEP a huge 2:1 chunk of the public s riding the Cougars. 64% is a long way from 50-50. Interestingly, this line opened at 3.5, and the total was 57.5 Now the 8 books represented on covers.com have all moved to 5.5 or 6, and the total has risen to 74.5... except one! One book still has the total at 57.5 I'm no expert, but it seems to me a smart bettor would go bet the over at that book, and likely clean UP.

NMST +29.5 at Hawaii Wow, that's a big, big line, and even more impressively, a whopping 69% of the betting public is on the Rainbow Warrior bandwagon!

Troy -4.5 at ArkSt Looks like Daddy's analysis is not the only one to like the Trojans here. 69% are riding on the team from Troy here.

NoIll +3.5 at Tol I'll be honest kids, I know less than bubkis about the Toledo Rockets, and almost as little about Northern Illinois, but a monstrous 70% of the betting public is undeterred by the Rockets' 3-5 record and thinks they'll have no trouble beating the 1-7 Huskies by 4.

Duke +17.5 at FSU That's a big, big line, but Duke is a bad, bad team. 60% like the 'Noles.

UCLA +6 at WshSt Wazzou getting only 40% of the love hosting the Bruins.

Ohio +7 at BG Bowling green has 62% of the public believing! Or at least disbelieving in the Bobcats.

ULM +6 at FlAtl Florida Atlantic (who names a Florida team the Owls?!?) has a monstrous share of common belief, over 70%. It could be that only 10 people bet on this game and only 3 went to UL in Monroe, too.

Idaho +17.5 at Nev I tell you what, I don't think I'll be choosing any 3-4 teams to cover 18 point lines, even if their hapless opponents are 1-7.

UVa -3.5 at NCST Finally a road favorite! Maybe it's the 7-1 vs 2-5 record, but twice as many people are thinking Cavs. That's a tiny line for such differing records, but I've done no research whatsoever.

USF -4 at Uconn Just over 2/3 of the public agrees with me: Uconn cannot possibly hang within 4 here.

SMU +13.5 at Tulsa Are there people who just look for 1 win teams on the road and bet against them no matter the spread? Almost 70% of the public has done that here.

AZ +3.5 at Wash The Huskies have 2/3 of the action on them.

Mi-O +13.5 at Van Vandy is impressing people. Almost 67% of the people. With a 2 TD line. Give me a moment, I grew up in the SEC and all this love for the Commodores is freaking me out, man!

NW +12.5 at PU I don't know if Purdue actually uses PU, but I did. I know nothing about this matchup, but they both have winning records and 13 is a lot of points. Purdue isn't exactly an historic tradition of football power. 65% say I'm wrong to be skeert of that line.

IU +8.5 at Wisc Only one game apart in record, and IU has looked pretty decent this season, and the Badgers are still 3 FG favored? 63% are unimpressed with Hoosier football.

BSt +14 t UIL Illinois has been exciting people, and 72% of the public thinks the Fighting Illini will handle the visiting Cardinals by a pair of TDs. Or maybe no one wants to bet on a team named Ball State. heh heh.

Akron +1.5 at Buff The Bulls draw 2/3 of support in this battle of losers.

BoiSt -3 at FrSt Everyone loves the Broncos after that incredible defeat of OU in the best bowl game ending ever, and they're getting 68% of the love. Poor Fresno State Bulldogs.

UNC +5.5 at Wake I like the Demon Deacons here too, just like almost 70% of you.

And finally we come to the Lopsided Lemming Lock of the weekend! Kentucky is hosting Miss State, and they are favored by a smooth 14 points. It's hard to argue with the Wildcats this season, and soon in Starkville they'll have to realize the Sylvester Croom experiment has failed. a too-many-people-like-this-to-not-be-worried 77% of the players like the Cats here!

Next week we see how smart these Lopsiders are, and we also will require 63% to make it into this column from now on.

Friday Fund Freezer

Well we spoke of some college games earlier in the week, and now it's time to finalize the week's games to play. Let me say for the record that I think the financial rules and arrangements the NCAA keeps college athletes under is nothing short of exploitation! So now let's see if we can further exploit them for our own benefit instead. These are the games to lock up your imaginary, well within your personal limits, completely for entertainment bankroll on for the weekend.

Let's see first where we stand on our early looks.

WVa -6 at Rutgers. Moved from -6.5 earlier in the week. WVa will be up so fast so much, Ray Rice won't even get the chance to work on his Heisman stats. The Scarlet Knights can raise the drawbridge and prepare all the boiling oil they want, but they won't be able to stop the second best rushing team in the country.



Cal +3 at ASU. Other than the overrated disease of "but they're undefeated" keeping ASU the favorite here, let's remember that if not for an under seasoned QB failing to spike it, Cal would be undefeated and #1 in the country right now.

(Get it? Wine, gayness, bear... they're California Bears... ah nevermind.)






(Thanks to southerngent.org for the pic.)


KU -3 at Texas A&M. This line was 2.5 earlier in the week, and I sure hope you jumped on it then when I suggested it. Now lookit, I love me some Aggies, but does anyone really think that the embattled Coach Fran is going to be the team to do what K State and Colorado couldn't? A&M taking down the Jayhawks would be a bigger story than KState beating the Horns and the Buffs derailing Oklahoma. I don't know anyone who thinks that the Aggies are better than the Wildcats. The wagering public is favoring the Massive Mangione's squad at about a 6 to 4 clip right now.

The bell tolls for thee, Franchione. Hey that rhymes! Towelie, you say it rhymes, admit that it rhymes!

Those were the opening lines we liked. Let's take a late Friday look at them now. I'd like to add to them one more game. Play all four of these!

Troy -4.5 at Arkansas State. Troy beat Oklahoma State soundly, and their only 2 losses are at Florida and opening day at Arkansas. The Trojans are tearing through their conference with bad intentions. I will let Towelie make the tearing trojans jokes. Just load up on Troy to punish the Indians. Their only common opponent, ULMonroe, beat ArkSt 30-13 while losing to Troy 24-7.

Good luck, imaginary sports bettors! Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only kids. As I was discussing with a good friend of mine last weekend, pictured here at right, (we'll call him JD), it's usually less fun to watch a great football game when you've got real money on it. So stick to play money and points on paper, and bragging rights with your friends.

What I MEANT to say...

Is that you should have picked Boston College +3 @ Virginia Tech. Indeed, you should have logged on to your favorite offshore gambling site, picked Boston college to win at 5-1 (if they even spread it at that point) on the in-game betting with 2:00 remaining and made a buttload of money.

Let's break this one down. I'm not an expert on defensive manuevering, but just pretend for a minute that you have used a combination of sparce man/ stifling zone defense to break up passes and nearly intercept about 5 balls. While you are smothering their receivers, you also manage to bring pressure to the "Heisman candidate by default" and cause him to fumble numerous times. Of course, recovering some of these fumbles might have helped. But I digress.

Let's then pretend that you are a defensive back and your coach changes the plan to a prevent defense (that is, to prevent you from winning) up by 10 points with 2:00 remaing . You might think this a little strange, but in the heat of the battle you have no choice but to follow your fearless leader. You know, the one that makes 7 figures while you get a $30,000 scholarship. The team that you stifled in the first 58 minutes of the game suddenly puts up 14 hard earned points because you're not in the position to use your athletic ability.

But I forget that once again that I am successful! Another loss for me means another victory for any bloggers that decide to bet against me. I knew Virginia Tech would do something stupid to screw this one up - including the newest NCAA penalty which forbids brushing shoulders with the kicker. That's going to be one hell of a rash.


Recap

Week of 10/15 1-4
Week of 10/22 0-1
Total 1-5

Total money made @ $100 bets betting AGAINST me (@ -110): $390

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Thursday Night CFB: Get behind before the weekend starts!

Ahh, it's Thursday night again, isn't it? Time for home dogs to consistently cover once again while I bet on the statistical favorite. It's a good thing the home team is favored, otherwise I could be sure of a 0-8 Thursday night record tonight.

Towelie's pick of the night: Boston College +3 @ Virginia Tech
Towelie's lock pick of the night: Doritos Over/Under 50 chips @ my mouth.

When I first saw the VTech-BC line, my mouth literally opened wide enough to stick my foot inside, which will most likely happen when I lose and you profit from my horrible analysis.

Quality wins have been scarce for both teams, but BC's toughest opponent has been Georgia Tech... seriously. Notre Dame also put up quite a fight. VTech lost to LSU in a spectacular display of suckiness that rivals Mark Mangino when he inhales his post-game rack of ribs.

The public factor also has to be taken into account... Let's hear it - this is a Trap Game! The public is going to jump on a No. 2 ranked team being given 3 points , proving profitable for us sleeper VTech bettors.

As for the Doritos, put your mortgage on it.

Throw Away Thursday

Given my sterling NFL record for the season (roughly 40% correct) i think you can just blindly bet against me and show a small profit.

But THIS week i feel really good about these picks! I'm avoiding the trap games! I'm going to bet enough to et caught up! I'm due! I have a new system! Did i miss any sports bettor garbage speak?

Chi -4.5 vs detroit. give me the lions, please, coming off a convincing win vs the awful bears who squeaked one out against a sub par team. games like this make me think i'm reading the line wrong. how is detroit a dog here?

Pitt -3.5 @ Cinci. i think Holly Mangold's team could cover 3.5 on this bengals defense.

Tampa Bay -4 vs Jax. I would like another dog here please. Jacksonville is the UF Gators of the NFL... they are WAY the best 2 loss team in the league. Oh wait, they just lost their starting QB. Who cares! run run run!

NO -3 @ SF. The offense is back for the saints, plus a bunch of people who got flooded out and whose lives are ruined from being dependent on government instead of themselves will be sad if the saints don't get back to winning.

NE -16.5 vs. WAS Ahad, this one's for you. In a HUGE upset, the pats only win by 12 here.

Denver -3 @ GB. Packers... no team that is at least mediocre or better fails to win in the NFL after a bye week. and it's at home. please.

A lot of games, but i like em. the ones i would actually risk play money chips on in a completely for-entertainment, fictitious wagering envioronment are: GB, NO, Det.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Early look at the underpaid football players

Randy Moss is not human. Those 2 50 yd TD catches were like nothing I've seen in the NFL. Even more fun since he decided to catch one of 'em without using his hands. Elbows are underrated as part of a wide receiver's toolkit.

OK, on to the early look at college games.

I like WVa -6.5 at Rutgers. How can Rutgers stop that sick offense of Slaton and White?

I like Cal +3 at ASU.

OH DEAR JOHN DAVID CROW! KU is only a 2.5 pt fave over A&M?!?! I need to bet my left nut and all disposable income on this game. what?!?!???? i have been to KU and A&M websites, see no news... have no idea why this line is this small. Woohoo, I'm all in!

Friday, October 19, 2007

What I MEANT to say was...

Here's what I meant to say for last night's game:

South Florida @ Rutgers +2: South Florida has been good so far this year, but they have several key weaknesses. I still feel like they haven't perfected the old fumbleroosky play on kick returns. If South Florida were to block a field goal, I feel like they would try to fumble the ball forward to get a touchdown at all costs, forgetting the fact that if you do fumble it, it is a live ball, and the other team can recover the ball and go back the other way.

They also haven't perfected the illegal forward pass. If they had the ball and decided to risk throwing it forward when there are 3 Rutgers players around to get a few extra yards, they couldn't do it convincingly enough to convice the refs to not give them a penalty afer watching the instant replay. Nevermind the fact that you're not supposed to give out penalties based on instant replay.

I also think that South Florida doesn't realize that when the refs have money on the game, the boundaries for late hits out of bounds starts 3 feet before the white line. This will probably cost them sometime during the game. Also, just touching the defender will result in a push-off penalty.

What South Florida also doesn't know is that their penalties will come on game changing plays on Thursday night. Every time they make a spectacular play to turn the tide of the game, the refs
will probably bring it back.

Bryan High will win this game straight up, they don't even need the points. Oops, I mean Rutgers.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Towelie says:

Games I like this week:
South Florida -2.5 @ Rutgers: Rutgers has some big-game potential and is a decent team, but South Florida is getting up for every game. They won't let their guard down on this one.
Cincinatti -9.5 @ Pitt: Cincinatti let one slip last week at Louisville, but this one won't be a contest: Pitt's QB has a 1:2 TD to INT ratio, and their D allows 147 yards a game against a Cincinatti running game that averages 178 yards a game.
Florida @ Kentucky +7 : I think Kentucky had a little reality check against South Carolina, and without the turnovers, may have beat them. Of course, both teams have had quality losses, and Kentucky's run D is worse than Florida's, but on the road, Florida allows 70 more yards than at home. With the 7 points at home I believe in Kentucky.
Just for good measure, and I probably won't bet on:
Texas A&M +2 @ Nebraska: Nebraska has lost all faith in their program, has huge gaps in their run defense (allowing over 200+ yards a game) we have a strong running game, at least.
Texas -25 @ Baylor: Texas likes to run over Big 12 teams, and it's not like Baylor is going to put up a fight. If they think they had a chance against any big 12 team this year, they would have at least tried with us.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Mondaymorning Post Mortem

Time to look back on our predictions and see how we did.

WINS
Auburn +3
Tecas Tech -9
Texas -16
ECU +2

LOSSES
Bama -6
Georgia -7

PUSHES
South Carolina -6

Hahahahahaha 4-2-1 for the week. Eat it!

NFL games did not go as well.

WIN
San Diego -9.5

LOSS

Arizona -4

PUSH
Tennessee +3

1-1-1 is about as good as Willie is going to do picking the Pros.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Early look at the underpaid football players

I also like Arizona -4, Tenn +3.

San Diego has a BIG line to cover, and with Culpepper back and playing well that big line worries me a lot. Enough to lay off. Same with NYG vs Atl... on MNF, where games tend to be closer. I think that 1/2 point is huge. I have no hard stats to back this one up... the more research I do the more I think T is right. Just a bad feeling. What about Omenuraiertertuywa? Is he healthy again? Because without him I don't like NYG's defense much. He's probable, but I dunno what condition he's in. Anyone?

I freaking LOVE Auburn +3. I have no opinion on Louisville vs Cinci. I think T's prolly right about Cal, but lines as big as -14 scare me. I'm a bit of a vag that way. Boise st/Nev over sounds good, sounds REAL good, but I have done no research on their totals yet.

I really like Tech-9 vs A&M. By the way, it OPENED at -8... a fine example of jumping on a line EARLY. That point is pretty sweet to have.

SoCar -7 at NoCar at -105... best deal online. i like that bet A TON. spurrier angry about UK, Spurrier SMASH!

To recap from my early email this week:

t.u. -16 at Iowa state
bama -6 at ole miss
socar -6 at nocar
tech-8 hosting a&m
uga -7 at vandy
ecu +2 at utep

I will not bet t.u. or ecu. I like the other 4, though the tech line moved a point. So did the cocks' line.