NFL - Finally the pain is over

I know several of these teams don't have much to play for, but I'm asking you guys if you think they should be dogs anyway. I like the team with the points next to em.

CAR @ TB+3 who cares if TB doesn't have much to play for, CAR is DOO-DOO.

DAL +9 @ WAS Will the pokes (and jerry) REALLY let their #1 rival beat them by 10, even with starters on the bench?

JAX +6.5 @ HOU Jax would need to sit a LOT of their O line for this to be a houston win by 7.

SEA +1.5 @ ATL see carolina logic. atlants is worse. i think atlants is the worst team in the league.

i like these non playoff team matchups separately from the stars are sitting reasons:

CIN @ MIA +2.5 Cinci doesn't give a crap, Miami is playing hard to win a game, and Cin ain't really that tough.

NO -2 @ CHI Chi is starting Kyle. Orton. I just don't think they can score enough to keep up with NO unless I've missed a memo about the saints sitting everyone somewhere.

NFL Cash Trasher

Here's what I like. If history is any guide, I am about 50% right.

Miami @ Buffalo -7

San Diego pickem @ Tennessee

Tampa Bay -3 @ Houston

Minnesota -8.5 @ SF

Cleveland -3.5 @ NY Jets

Nawlins -4 @ Atlanta

NY Giants @ Philadelphia +3

I reery, reery, rike TB, Cle, and NO. A lot.

It's not that tough

Can I just point out that all the "upsets" this season were only upsets because the pollsters decided, based on VERY LITTLE INFORMATION, that some team was better than another? Is anyone in doubt that any college football poll made before the first month of play is USELESS?! Ok rant over, I just wanted to point out how fun I think it is that the sports media slobbers over all the 'upsets' this year, when it seems to me about 90% of those upsets only prove how BAD the sports media is at ranking the teams. So the more upsets, the dumber the pollsters are proven to be.

On to the meat of our article:

A college football playoff system isn't that tough. Everyone has their ideas, so here is mine to add to the mix.

Let me mention first the "+1 model" is stupid. Many years you don't need a +1, so what then? Other years, when there are 3 teams who should get in (remember Auburn getting the screw job so OU could get embarrassed by USC?) then how do you figure fairly who plays first and who only has to play the second game? It's just a clumsy, half way bandaid that will create more problems.

Everyone knows the BCS is broken and terrible. Its defenders point out it's only supposed to match the top 2 at the end of the season, and it gets that right some % of the time. So we're to settle for a system that, for instance, lets Kansas and Illinois into the BCS games and keeps Missouri out, and on top of that, only gets the #1 vs #2 matchup right in the years no one needs a system to decide that game? Let's do better.

Here, my friends, is better. The greatest sport deserves a great ending.

Let's address the objections first, and then I'll show you how my system knocks out each of them.

#1. Players can't play any more games because of academics.

#2. Reporters, whose media influence and almost control these discussions, would lose influence and power when the polls aren't important, so they'll never be on board.

#3. A Playoff system would reduce the virtual sudden death nature of the regular season, which is where most of the drama comes from.

#4. The current bowl system makes too many people too much money, and so we can't get rid of it.

The easiest first. Academics and extra games are stupid excuses, and we all know it. Women athletes miss a lot more class days, not to mention Div II football has a playoff, and they need an education much more! Since far fewer of them make it to the NFL, see. Also, with 45 days between some teams' last game and their bowl, there's plenty of time to fit in some playoff rounds.

For the reporters and pollsters, we'll have role for them inside the system. Keep reading.

A Playoff system would NOT lessen the importance of the regular season. How are the ratings on NFL regular season games? Ding! How about having a 1 loss Texas team or a 2 loss LSU team playing in a title game? Ding! Looks like college games aren't important because of the sudden death nature, but because there are so few games, and the games themselves are so awesome. So if we had a playoff system implemented that kept the regular season important, wouldn't that make everyone happy?

Lastly, the bowl system. I think the fix on this one is to have a playoff system that either utilizes the current bowls, or leaves some meaningful bowl games outside the playoff that people still want to watch. What about a system that does both? Woohoo!

So here it is:

A. EVERY conference must play a conference title game. Only conference champions are eligible for the playoff.

This keeps the regular season meaningful and exciting. You have to win your division to get to the conf. title tilt, so you have to win most of your conference games. There are 11 conferences and a handful of independent teams. Let the indys figure out their own crap, and offer us up one team for our playoff. We now have 12 teams, sounding like a nice 8 team first round, with 4 byes, an 8 team second round, a 4 team semi and a 2 team TRUE title game! This also allows plenty of room for Boise State '06 style Cinderellas, and would let us all see Hawaii '07 get CRUSHED.

By the way, since all of these teams are in a bowl currently, that means of the 11 playoff games, only 5 are extra. So a playoff system with only FIVE extra games total, and no team playing more than 3 extra? Sweet!

Yes, the champion of the MAC will be worse then the 5th best team in the SEC. This helps us here in 2 ways: if you don't win your conference, you can't be national champion! Secondly, it leaves some REALLY good teams for some exciting bowl games.

B. The pollsters seed the bracket.

Now the pollsters are still important, as they decide who gets the 4 first round byes. This also underscores how important the regular season is. You don't want a loss to Stanford to drop you to the #6 seed, do you?

C. The existing bowls host the playoff brackets.

There are 11 playoff games, and currently 32 bowl games. If YOU were the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, would you rather have Western Bohunk A&T vs. the MAC #3 team, or USC vs Hawaii in a first round playoff game? Exactly. The other 21 bowls would get to untangle their traditional tie ins and make meaninfgul invitations. How about taking UGA this year and putting them up against Missouri? Neither is a conference winner, but are you telling me you wouldn't watch that game in the Cotton Bowl, for instance?

There you have it, simplicity and a playoff we can all get behind. The only opponents left, after my awesome explanation, would be the conference presidents. They want a system where a good conference gets in 2 or 3 teams, for the money. However, the point of my system is to TAKE AWAY the subjectivity! So you have to win your conference to go to the dance. No committees, no votes, no straw polls. Just teams that won, no arguments.

The only other reasonable option is having a 32 team playoff, with the polls deciding which teams are in, satisfying all the "our conference deserves 4 teams" issues, as well as using every single existing bowl.

For fun, here's how it would look this season under my system. Please tell me what you think in the comments, including what you like about it, how you would seed the teams if we could, and what problems I may not have addressed. I really, honestly believe this concept truly addresses all the issues I've ever heard raised about a playoff. It is time to stop letting subjective pollsters and coaches, and a computer which puts in some programmer's subjective criteria, decide the ending to our nation's best sport.

(note: I can't make the text here let me keep a bracket. I'm too dumb. So this is ugly, but you get the idea. Either email help with formatting, or shut up. Thank you.)

#1 OSU
______#1 OSU
BYE
____________________#5 USC
#5 USC
______#5 USC
#12 Bowling Green

____________________________ #4 Va Tech
#8 BYU
______#9 Navy
#9 Navy
____________________#4 Va Tech
#4 Va Tech
______#4 Va Tech
BYE


#3 Oklahoma
______#3 OU
BYE
_____________________#3 OU
# 10 UCF
_______#7 WVa
#7 WVa

_____________________________#2 LSU
#6 Hawaii
_______#6 Haw
#11 FlaInt
_____________________#2 LSU
BYE
_______#2 LSU
#2 LSU


How exciting does this bracket look? I don't care who Navy or BYU are playing currently, but I would love to see that matchup in a playoff. I take Navy in the upset, and I take USC to beat OSU, and VaTech to beat them.

In the other half of the draw, the Tigers and the Sooners would actually get to play. That might be my favorite game. You could talk me into different winners for both my semi finals, but this is my party and this is how I want it to happen. I take LSU to win the title, but couldn't you see USC, or VaTech, or OU getting hot and running all the way through? How GREAT would that be?

Willie's Way of the Warrior

Oh yes, you've been waiting for it and now here it is. Our guest columnist has temporarily backed out, and so I am stepping in to write on some fine MMA action. Since I am not half as knowledgable of a fan, and about one third the writer that Phil is, you're going to get a very different MMA column than you would have.

See, we were all set to have "Phil's Phists of Phury!" run every couple of weeks, and we may still get that in the future. Right now I, your humble Willie, will fill in until that AWESOMELY named column becomes a reality. Now there are dozens of MMA sites out there, and one or two of them are really great. Mmamania.com is my favorite, and Yahoo Sports' UFC coverage as well as Sherdog are all three excellent. Those sites will give you your inside info, breaking news, and more. HERE you will get a big fan's perspective on MMA on TV, going on in the business, and most importantly, what big fights are coming up and why you should be excited!

So to kick things off I want to talk to the people who like boxing but don't like mixed martial arts. Look, I grew up a boxing fan. I watched old fights of many of the greats. I was a George Foreman fan when I was 8. Boxing is dead though, baby. D -E - D. Let's think about the biggest boxing match this year, maybe in 5 years, De La Hoya - Mayweather. What a terrible, garbage boring, tapfest. People think MMA is boring sometimes because 2 fighters are on the ground and not slugging away? Yeah let's compare two brutes with tiny gloves that are attempting to either elbow each other's faces open so badly they can't see through the blood - or catch the other in a submission hold and break his arm at the elbow. Let's compare that to two cats who wear gloves with 3/4 lbs of padding, and attempt to either tap each other enough times to outscore the other, or hug him until the ref makes them stop groping one another.

Pretty easy to see which one is more exciting. That DeLaHoya - Mayweather fight was terrible and boring. It was point sparring, the sort of boring thing you quit when you're 11 and your Mom makes you take Tae Kwon Do. No one was trying to win through superior strength or just a violent imposition of will, they just wanted to love tap the other guy until the judges gave them a win. Boo.

Look, boxing died 20 years ago, or more. The promoters keep any real fights from happening, there's too many groups claiming the world champ, and the crookedness is too deep. Let's just declare boxing dead, and move on to a real combat sport.

And now for something completely different.

I like The Ultimate Fighter TV show, but I think we're seeing some tires and lug nuts starting to fly. (That means the wheels have come off, for you Yankee readers). It's still great to see fighters thrown into this pressure cooker, great to see elite fighters coaching newcomers, and great to see guys fighting not for a big purse, but just for the chance to fight on the big stage. So how could we make the show more exciting? Part of searching for unknowns means you're going to have some fighters that just won't pan out, and I just don't want to watch those guys. How about we take 8 of the top teams or gyms in the business and have them send in their top prospects? Team Quest, Militech FS, Couture's gym, etc. etc. could all send in a guy. This would seem to help out the scouting process a lot.

Next time, we talk about big fights coming up, and how happy we are that TV show writers are not writing.

Peek at the Pros

Let's get some discussion going on the NFL action. Given my mediocre record at picking the Pros vs the spread, you can tell me in the comments why I'm wrong to be so excited about these games.

Detroit @ Minnesota -3.5 = Lions getting worse, Vikes getting better. The O-line for the Vikings seems to make every RB look good, and their D improves each week. The Lions seem to be all tires and lug nuts -- wheels coming off.

NYJ +1.5 @ Miami = Lookit, I don't care how bad the Jets are, Miami is going to have to sign an RB off the street. They'll probably end up with one of those guys who models for video games and carries around a highlight clip of himself from Div II college ball.

Cleveland +1 @ Arizona = So after losing to the 49ers, the Cards are going to beat one of the best offenses in League. Yyyyyyeah.

SF +3 @ Carolina = This is a pick made mostly by me not believing Carolina, a QB-free team, can beat anyone.

Denver -3.5 @ Oakland = The Raiders are poop. Denver bounces back this week from a tough late loss to Chicago.

Tampa Bay +3 @ New Orleans = TB runs it well, and Nawlins can't stop the run. Their inconsistent O and whether Jeff Garcia can go for the Bucs will determine this pick. Right now I am going with the Buccaneers.

Last shot at college

Well we're just crashing here at the end of the season, making your comments even more important. A good discussion and a good consesns will make this final week a strong finish!

I'm going to pick EVERY game right now, we'll talk about them, and then at the end of the week I'll post the final picks that are worth playing.

VaTech -4.5 @ BC = BC does not like defenses that are aggressive, and their special teams are weak. BeamerBall is all about special teams and B-E-ing aggressive.

Tenn @ LSU -7.5 = At Knoxville, I would pick the Vols. I think LSU will win, but their D can give up points, and man can UT score them. In Atlanta though, I have to take the tigers. I'd like it a lot more at 6.5.

OrgSt @ Oregon off = Is the line up yet?

UCLA @ USC -20 = At USC, with no healthy UCLA QBs, with USC wanting to prove they're worthy of a Rose Bowl bid. Buh bye, Bruins.

BYU -14.5 @ SDSt = SD State is baaaaaaaad. BYU puts up poiiiiiiiiiiiiints.

Pitt @ WVu -28 = I hate lines this big. Say they're up 24 and put some starters on the bench? Of course, we saw what they did to UConn, and Pitt is doodoo compared to the Huskies.

OU @ Mizzou +3 = I love Bob Stoops, but I am blown away by Chase Daniels. I don't think OU's D can stop the Tigers from scoring any number of points, but certainly within 3 of the Sooners. Yes, I know they beat em before, but all the Mo is on Mizzou's side now.

AZ @ AZSt -6.5 = AZ has been coming on, but ASU handles them at home. I like this line.

Wash +13.5 @ Hawaii = The Rainbow Warriors can win, but not by 2 TDs. They have had close ones vs WAC foes, and even in an off year, the Huskies are still PAC 10 caliber.

Rivalry Week head start

This is where we start the discussion for the coming week. I like the following picks, but maybe not enough to play them just yet. We'll look more in depth as the week progresses. For now, you guys load up the comments with your opinions!


USC @ AZ St +3.5 Especially in Tempe, I just don't see how USC wins this game. Too green.

TX -5.5 @ A&M Earlier in the year, I thought this would be the only game the Aggies could win in November. As the season progressed, and Colt McCoy refused to start sucking as bad as I thought he would, and Fran found a way to suck even more than I thought he could, I just can't take the Aggies here. Texas is a much better team this year than last, and the Ags are at best the same, but most likely worse. Make room for Tubberville and $4 mil/season!

BoiseSt +4 @ Hawaii I have been looking forward to this matchup all season, and I've been saying that even with Colt Brennan in there the Warriors couldn't beat the Broncos. Now with Colt being concussed, I don't think the outlook is better for them. Note to Moms: naming your kid Colt is a guarantee of a concussion for him on a nationally televised college football game. (See also McCoy, Colt).

Mizzou @ Kansas -2 I believe in coach Mangiant!

UConn +17 @ Wvu I deeply loathe the Huskies cheating football team, but I have little confidence in the Mountaineers to win this game by more than 10.

Miami @ BC -14.5 I could be talked out of this one, but really, Miami is GAR- BIJJ.

UGA -3.5 @ GaTech This line is this low because it's a rivalry game, but the Dawgs are the 2nd hottest team in all of America (Kansas) with the 2nd best player in the sport (Tebow).

Oregon -2 @ UCLA Even sans-Dennis, UCLA can't keep up with the Ducks.

FSU @ Fla -13.5 Fsu just isn't so good, and Florida is. The spread is big though.

Clemson -3 @ SoCar I do like Spurrier (I do!) but Clemson is too much for them.

Report Card full of sadness and rage

Our first losing week of the entire college season! 5-6 in college, but in a painful way. 3 of those were by teams ahead in the score but not on the spread who knelt it out in the opponent's red zone! Yeah, that sucked. Sucking more would be picking a 4 game parlay, which has a reward of 10:1, picking the first 3 games right, then having the 4th game win by 5 when the spread was 6, and your team with the ball on the bad guys' 25 with 2 minutes left.

In the NFL, another week of not quite winning and just barely losing, at 3-3. We hopped on the Pats' bandwagon with Towelie just before kickoff. Adjusted for units, the NFL weekend was slightly on the + side.

Thanks to our friend the Paki for a hot NBA tip late Saturday. Houston - McGrady = mediocre.

Only a couple of weeks left to win in the college ranks, because I'm not a big fan of Bowl game point spreads. With the wide variance in time off, hard to find common points of comparison, etc. etc., bowl games are for suckers.

While we're at it, the bandwagon bets (defined as any game with 66% of public consensus on one side of the spread) was 9-6 this weekend. That 60% win rate is not too shabby. Maybe next week we'll just take the bandwagon bets and pick those games.

NFL Cash Trasher

I'm bitter about my first losing college FB weekend. So here's my NFL choices. You may pick opposite to assure yourself profit.

Cleveland -2.5 @ Baltimore

SD +3 @ Jax

TB -3 @ Atlanta

Washington @ Dallas -11

Pittsburg -9.5 @ NY Jets

Lemming Meringue Pie

Goodness. If there are as many upsets this weekend in college football as there are, say, every weekend the games are played, the odds makers will have a tasty treat. There are LOTS of bandwagon bets this 3rd weekend of November. Many of them are for favorites to cover HUGE lines. I mean I hate some of these teams folks are picking against, but do you really like Navy's offense enough to win by 16, for example? Good luck to public consensus I say, b/c I find several of my picks on this list.

FlaInt @ FLA -34 69%
Mizz -7 @ KState 71%
Idaho @ Boise St -33.5 71%
Wisc -13.5 @ Minn 72%
UtaSt @ NMxSt -8.5 68%
SdSt @ AirFc -11 69%
ULMon @ Bama -24.5 70%
UCF -12.5 @ SMU 67%
Marsh @ Hou - 11.5 66%
WMich @ Iowa -14 70%
NoIll @ Navy -16 68%
UAB @ Mem -11.5 66%
Cal -7 @ Wash 67%
NCSt @ Wake -6 67%
OSU -14 @ Bay 70%

Get behind before the weekend starts!!!

I still have to tally my results from last week but you can assume that I had worse results than a blind man in an archery contest. I might as well dump all of the teams in a hat and pick games that way to get around a 50% win rate. But that's not why you're picking against me, now is it?

Weekend College Football anti-picks:

Missouri -7 @ K-State: Now that I'm betting against them, the sheep-lovers are going to pull out a new strand of barbed wire fence.

Bowling Green pk @ Buffalo: I'm on Willie's BG bandwagon here.

LSU -19.5 @ Ole Miss: LSU wants to maintain their BCS status.

Central Florida -12.5 @ SMU: SMU blows. That is all.

the 'waving wheat' OK State -14 @ Baylor: Baylor sucks at home, on the road, in a waco brothel, wherever...

Louisville +8.5 @ South Florida: Groethe just had a mental meltdown. S Florida may win, but will not cover

Marshall @ Houston -11.5: We... are.... a horrible football team!

Please remember to support your local offshore bookie this weekend!

Friday Funds Freezer

Mizz -7 @ KState

Kentucky @ UGA -7.5

Bowling Green @ Buffalo pk

PSU @ MSU +3

Wisconsin -13.5 @ Minnesota

Marshall @ Houston -11.5

OK jr. -15 @ Baylor

WVa -6.5 @ Cinci

OU -8 @ Texas Tech

Maryland +7.5 @ FSU (and under 45)

LSU -19.5 @ Ole Miss

That's right, I took an awful lot of road teams, and a whole lot of favorites too this week.

Early look at the underpaid football players

My college pickem prowess now frightens medium sized invertebrates and small Italian stereotypes across the land. Follow me, or sorrow in your failure to do so.

A few early looks, some of which will certainly see the lines move as soon as these open in broad release.

Mizzou -7.5 @ KState - The same KState that just lost by 294 to Nebraska.

Kentucky @ Georgia - 8 - Let's compare UK to Auburn, who just lost by 20 between the hedges.

Bowling Green -1.5 @ Buffalo - I know you still don't know who the Falcons, are, but there are 2 teams I have not picked wrong one single time this season. I'm 4-0 with BG.

Duke @ ND -5 - I'm still looking into this one, but wanted to get it up here for discussion. I hate the Irish, but Duke?

PSU @ MSU +3 - Sparty doing well late, barely lost to Michigan. Their record vs. common opponents is most compelling here for the Spartans.

Wisconsin -13.5 @ Minnesota - You know, the 1-10 Golden Gophers.

Marshall @ Houston -11.5 - Check out scores vs. common opponents. And don't forget the Thundering Terd's general suckitude.

OK State -15 @ Baylor - Baylor gives up late in the season, and OSU is mad. I think 19.5 would be a better line.

WVa -6 @ Cinci - This is all kinds of tough to pick. All kinds of stats justify picking both teams, so I'll just go with Slaton and White.

OU -9.5 @ Texas Tech - Tech is poo in November. Bob Stoops' Sooners are not.

NFL Pickem

Five games get the I-like-em! seal of doom this week.


Buffalo -3 @ Miami - I won't belabor justifying picking against the Phins.

Atl +4 @ Car - Atlanta might be bad, but the Panthers are even worse at QB and RB. Ewww.

Dal -1 @ NYG - That's right, early in the week it was -1. You have it at -2.5 don't you?

Det +1 @ AZ - The Lions are the only team keeping me from going ohfer each week.

Indy -3.5 @ SD - I love the Bolts, but Indy played the Pats to +4. Do we figure the Chargers are 7.5 points as good as the Patriots? No.

Time to poop or get off the pot: College FB edition

For this week's Friday Funds Freezer, you'll note that earlier in the week, picks were suggested. Now it is time to decide which ones are worthy of official pick status. Only Jarod decided to leave his comment in the comments (those of you who keep emailing me your thoughts are sort of missing the point of this format), but I know several of you are following my picks. I intend to not only maintain my success rate, but improve it this week!

You'll notice that some of the earlier looks are gone, and some new games are here. That's what happens when you look at em all week.

BG -3.5 @ EMich Just have faith in the research. I know you don't know who Bowling Green is.

IU -1.5 @ NW This line has moved to 2.5 almost everywhere, so i'm off it. But for the record, I like it a lot at -1.5.

UMich -2.5 @ Wisc I also like the over 46.5 here.

TAMU +18.5 @ Mizzou This has gone to 19.5, and I have decided I just can't play this game either way. DIE Fran, DIE!

GaTech @ Duke +13.5 You guys can haw haw all you want, but the Blue Devils cover this one. I will go even further out on the limb and call this under 46.

Auburn +1 @ UGa This has gone to +2. You bet against Tuberville's SEC road record, I won't. War Eagle!

Kentucky @ Vandy +3.5 This is the best year for the Commodores since... since I've been old enough to love SEC football, I think. I love me some Vanderbilt this week, and I love me some under 57.5 here too.

Texas Tech @ Texas -6.5 We do need villains to make any contest interesting, and these two teams excel at generating hatred. I hate Tech more this week. Horns can hook the raiders by 7.


(Please come to Aggieland, Tommy!)

UVa +3.5 @ Miami Last game in the Orange Bowl? Who cares! Does anything about the recent generation of UM kids suggest they're big fans of tradition, respect, or nostalgia? Ha! The Cavaliers win outright I says, and I also says under 41.5.
(Pic of Miami fighting FIU from usatoday.com)

UF -6.5 @ SoCar - I'm tempted to say over 59.5, but I'm staying off the totals here. The Ol' Ball Coach losing by 7 is plenty to pick here. Tee-boe has plenty to prove.

KU - 5.5 @ Ok State - You can boil this down to is Kansas 3 points better than Texas? Yes.

FrsSt +17.5 @ Hawaii - Hawaii wins, but not by 17.5 over the Bulldogs. You guys would rather not bet at all than bet on a dog. You can't win playing the favorites all your life, boys!

What I meant to Say... CALI edition

As Willie mentioned earlier, I am in California, Costa Mesa to be exact. When you hear 'Orange County' you expect the air to be fresh and the scenery to be beautiful:


The scenery is beautiful, especially at the mall I just came from. However, the smog from LA seeped its way down here and so I'm having trouble even looking at the screen in front of me.

To the point: I meant to say VATECH @ GATECH. There is no ref bashing on this one, I just have to pay Willie the 2.50 I owe him from having any faith in the Yellowjackets.

Now that I have had another stellar 1-4-1 week, I'm going to move onto another topic: POKER at the Commerce in LA. The only Casino I'd been to West of Missouri was in Vegas, and never have I seen so many poker tables. It's too bad I had to sit down at the rigged one.

So my short story begins with the gentleman 2 to my right. I use that term loosely, by the way. Turns out the dude was an early 20's community college student that was hoping to get into film school at USC. I told him he should just turn it in after the piss poor acting he did at the table. Yes, it is surprising that the trip Kings you smooth called on the flop are STILL there on the turn. I fold.

Here is our initial conversation:

Him: Dude, where did you get that shirt?
Me: Uh, Dillards I think.
Him: What's that?
Me: A department store.
Him: Ah, man, how much did it cost?
Me: Um, I dunno, maybe forty bucks.
Him: Oh man, I get everything from Goodwill

Yeah, including your poker play.







Anyways, I did pretty piss poor, worse than him because I didn't go on a bulletproof winning streak in my last 10 mintues. I was about as useless at that table as a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.

College Picks for this upcoming weekend (I promise I'll put some NFL picks up too later):
Uconn +5 @ Cincinnati: I don't care if Huskies are not natural football players (they tend to prefer round balls [get your mind out of the gutter]) I cannot fathom why Cincinnati would even be remotely considered to be a favorite here. Now that you know my pick, you can confidently bet Cincinnati.

Auburn +1 @ Georgia: Georgia is a public favorite, and we all know that Tuberville has brought his team back around. I know, you already bet Auburn and now you want to change it since I like them. Just change your $100 bet around to a $200 bet on Georgia... you'll only lose the $10 in juice.

Kansas State -7 1/2 @ Nebraska: Look, K State lost to a 1-8 team last week, but Iowa State has played everyone hard, including Oklahoma, so you shouldn't lose faith in the sheep lovers yet. I think Nebraska's going to end up with their head caught in a barbed wire fence this week.

Virginia Tech -6 1/2 vs Florida State: Florida State is garbage. I don't care if they beat BC, BC has been lucky garbage the whole year and was vulnerable. Get on VATECH if you haven't already, especially since it is in Blacksburg.

So that's it for the Cali edition. I guess I'm in the OC, but I don't feel any snobbier than I normally am. Maybe I'm high from all the smoke in the air. I need some Doritos.


By the way, if any of our 10 readers live somewhere in LA, you should consider going to the Sandpiper in Laguna Beach tomorrow night for Reggae night. If you want to see me get slapped in the face by about 15 women, you know you've come to the right place.

Early look at the underpaid football players

These are the lines that look bad to me on first glance. These are not final picks, just the ones I want to put up for YOU to discuss, throw rocks at, jump on board with, and generally discuss. As always, I use common opponents, average points for/against, recent record, injury reports, and a couple of other s00per sekrit statistics to make my picks. So here's what I think for this week: I think college players in revenue sports should be allowed stipends.

Oh, yeah the games!

Ohio -3 @ Akron

BG -3.5 @ EMich

IU -1.5 @ NW

UMich -2.5 @ Wisc

TAMU +18.5 @ Mizzou

KState -7.5 @ Neb

GaTech @ Duke +13.5

Auburn +1 @ UGa

Texas Tech @ Texas -6.5

UVa +3.5 @ Miami

UF -6.5 @ SoCar

KU - 5.5 @ Ok State

FrsSt +17 @ Hawaii

Report Card

It's that time again, and if you are not following my college football picks you are a FOOL!

Last weekend, including Thursday's VaTech underdog pick, Willie went 6-3-1 vs the spread. Stupid Wake Forest misses a game winning field goal, UConn continues to confound me, and a tropical storm in Boston (what?!) kept us from perfection.

In the NFL, I logged one of my few winning weekends. Of course, even a flipped coin comes up heads 5 of 8 sometimes, so you should continue picking against me in the NFL.

Tomorrow we'll bring in our early look at the college games, see how the bandwagon bettors did, and we'll check in with Towelie to see how his visit to California is going.

I'm too excited to write much today, the Internets are abuzz with news of Fran's firing from Aggieland! I guess he shouldn't have granted us that exclusive interview.

The Dignity of Dennis

Oh man, I am dead. I am deader than one of Mike Vick's... ah Dennis don't go there. I am SCREWED like a phillips' head.

Stupid boosters. 'Make sure you keep the newsletter quiet', I told them. Rednecks couldn't listen.

Oh well, I will land on my feet. I am FRAN. That's right, Dennis has a plan. Fran is a BRAND, and I can sell a brand name.

I put players in the LEAGUE. Anyone ever heard of LaDanian Tomlinson? Who coached him? This guy! Reggie McNeal? This gu... wait, what? backup WR? Jail? Released? Oh.

Well frankly I don't know what these psychotic Aggies want. Every year I get us to a bowl, isn't that enough? I should be coach of the year for even getting eligible with this bunch. I mean they want me to compete to win the conference? Look, I'm getting the finest 2A and 3A talent from across the state. After Texas, OU, and LSU raid the good schools, I just don't have the horses to run in the Big 12. I mean I beat Tech, isn't that something? Well, I don't actually beat them on the field, but we usually end up with a better record, anyway. Everyone knows we'll get stuck in a bowl we're way overmatched in because 2 of the teams above us will get bumped to BCS bowls, and we'll end up playing the SEC #7. Stuck like chuck, that's us.

I mean how do you coach against ARMY?!?!? They're heroes, for goodness' sakes. I tried to lose to em, then that electro shock chip Byrne made the veterinarian hospital put in me went off... is he communist?!? Who schedules Army at a time like this then wants me to win?!? I showed that jerk though. I pooched it up real good that season, lost all kinds of games, got the heat under him to fire me, then BLAM! Colt McCoy, meet turf. Turf, Colt. You boys acquainted? Ha! Eat that Mr Byrne. Fire me now? I just beat t.u.!

Alright Dennis, focus! You have got to start thinking about where you can sell the Fran Brand next. Boise State? No way; I hate blue turf, and they might want 10 wins on occasion. Wyoming, perfect! White guys are fast enough to play defense there. I'll be GOLD.

I dunno what the big deal with the newsletters was anyway. Everyone knows I'm on a handcart heading out of here on greased rails, ol Franny Fran needed some QUESO before they run me out of TEJAS! What sort of people pay thousands for information on a 19 year old's groin tear status? Freak show boosters. Some bohunk that patented velcro, or builds skyscrapers in Houston, or owns all the oil wells in Navasota, these guys show FRAN the green to tell 'em Tyrone JoJack from Tinybutt, Texas has a strained pinky toe and is moving to 4th string LB? What else could I do?

BOOM. SELL IT.

Fran is all about selling Fran. That is Dennis' motto. Motto, I like that word. I'm going to make more of those stupid wristbands and make the team wear em again. This time they'll say "MOTTO", and 20,000 kids will pay $1 each for em this time too. SELL IT. Fran you're a genius.

Oh yeah, they may think I'm in trouble, but remember back at TCU? LaDanian ran all over that weak sauce of Conference USA, and what did ol' Fran do? Did I stay in Horny Toad Central, where they expected me to win after the best player in 30 years left? FRAN knew it was time to move on. 'RING RING, Tuscaloosa! I hear you're desperate to stop sucking, and you're easily impressed by me beating the worst run defenses in America with the next Jim Brown. You're looking for a head coach? What? No, but I play one on TV!' BOOM. Roll Tide? Roll FRAN. SELL IT.

I am a marketing MACHINE. "Hello, Aggieland? Bama here lost some scholarships before I got here, I had one halfway good season, and I do not like the view from here. These hosses in the SEC are tough on mediocrity. I hear y'all are mad at ol' RC, and that you like running teams. I got 2 words for you. ELL TEE. Yeah I can bring another one to CS just like him! Uh... well... because I used to coach in Texas!" BOOM. SELL IT.

Then I got here and found out RC recruited Vince Young Jr.? Oh even I can get 7 wins with that guy. And you know what seven wins means? It is extension time! "Well hello, board of regents! I hear you're running low on FRAN and it's time to restock!" BOOM. SELL IT.

Stupid Stoops. Everyone who ever tied a shoe on his staff is winning somewhere now. Bob, you can't sprinkle a little of that magic Sooner dust my way, you fairy?

What bowl can I get into with 6 wins? Need a bowl game to get a new job. What kind of bowl does 6 wins get you? The Emerald Nuts Bowl? Awesome. I can't sign anyone from Cali, not in my happiest dreams. There's a wasted trip. Plus I can't beat a team like FSU. Stupid Bowden's been an animated corpse with a robot brain for 4 years now and he still outcoaches me.

Wait, I got it! I'll finish with 7 wins and beat Texas. Oh yeah, that gives me my exit strategy. I learned it last year. I can make a good exit and screw the Aggies all at once. Watch how bad I lose to Stoops this weekend. Point spread is 21? Hahahahaha! We'll be down that in the first half. Ever wonder why I'm still running the option down 3 scores in the 3rd? Oh that's right, ol' Dennis knows the spread. Now the line will move huge against the horns.

Guess why no one can find that money from the newsletters? Three words: OFF.SHORE.BOOKIE. Let Stoops kick our butts until that line goes big against the Horns, then rise up and cash IN. Fran coasts out loser the rest of the season, then finishes with 7 wins. We'll lose to Sylvester Croom in the Valtrex Itchy Crotch Bowl on December 23rd, and then those Caribbeans send me the check. Choke on some of that, Byrne!

FRAN will land on his feet. I will sell some angry school on FRAN. I'll tell em if I lose a game I'll coach it for free! They don't need to know deep down I am all about the SKRILLA. That's how I think of it anyway. These Aggies pay me $300,000 per WIN, and the losses are free. That's what happens when you can market FRAN! Did you like that game against Montana state this year Ags? $300,000 for that 38-7 drubbing we put on em. Oh man no one hated ol Dennis when we started out 3-0. Louisiana Monroe, need more of those. Maybe I can get us to move conferences. They boo me when I lose to Miami on TV? It was free! Who can be mad about that? Boo when I lose to Tech again on TV? to OU? to... wait do I ever win on TV? Oh wait, Fresno State! That'll be $300K please! Stick that in your hullabaloo canecks!

Well, Aggieland has not been kind to FRAN, but watch what this loss to OU does. It's about a lot more than manipulating lines, it is about SCORCHED EARTH. Let someone try to recruit after I'm done here! This cow college, did they really think I'd do any better than RC? All he did was recruit one big name a year, then hand out scholarships to walk ons. If they thought the cupboard was bare after him, I will show them bare. Baylor is about to get a surge in "possession receivers" and "hard working defensive backs" I can tell you that.

Somewhere, a team is so angry, with boosters so rich, they'll hire me. I am a marketing GENIUS, and I sell FRAN. Gig that!

(image courtesy of www.southerngent.org)

OVER-RATED

I live in a part of Texas where the bandwagon is completely orange. I'm not talking about the citrus variety of orange, which actually has a pleasant tone; I am referring to the orange that looks like it came out of an armadillo's rear end. I don't even know why it is called "burnt". I've burnt several t.u. hats, jerseys, shirts, skirts, pants, collectible ballpoint pens, crocs, jock straps, etc. and they always have an ashy-red appearance when they come out of my barbecue pit.

I don't mind if you want to cheer for a school in your area. In fact, I applaud your loyalty, if it is done in good taste. The one thing I don't want to hear about, however, is how many national championships your school has won. Especially if they were all won before you became a fan. This defense of your "team" is about as well put together as the one your lawyer put together to get you off of those cocaine charges. You got something on your nose there, buddy.

My point is this: Oklahoma State, a better shade of orange as their advertisements put it, is going to kick the ever living poop out of t.u. tomorrow. If the favorite was any more overrated, we would have to get Roger Clemens to quarterback the first half for $25 million. I would say OSU +3, but I'm going to have to take the money line here.


Some other overrated teams that have made us cringe over the years:

1. Notre Dame: By far the worst. Rudy was a good movie, your team is not. The only reason Notre Dame is on TV every week is because Charlie Weiss got Tony Roma's to sponsor his halftime meals. MMMMM RIBBBBS!!!

2. USC. I know they have won their share of national championships, but if I hear the name 'John David Booty' ONE more time on TV, the Best Buy Protection plan will have to be ready.

There is so much material here that I would hate to squander it on a Friday night when I am supposed to be out partying... so I am going to ask for comments on OVERRATED teams, including but not limited to any team that has thousands of bandwagon followers. I'm sure we can collectively come up with a few...

Towelie

Lopsided Lemming Action

In our second week of looking at games in which the public has gone overwhelmingly to one side, we notice one thing. NONE of these bets (which for our purposes are games in which over 66% of the action is on one side), not ONE of them are underdogs. Amarillo Slim said in his book Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People that most people would rather not bet at all than to bet on an underdog. This trend of bandwagon betting would seem to bear out his supposition.

Whether it's people's desire to associate themselves with a winner, nerves at betting a bad team will be able to cover, or maybe the only people playing these games are fans of the teams excited at the chance to pound a weak opponent, these games are being overwhelmingly played on the favorites.

This week we'll track the games with over 2/3 of the action on them, and we'll update the results after the weekend.

Ball State @ IU -7 - 69%
Clemson -16 @ Duke - 73%
Texas Tech -20.5 @ Baylor - 66%
Mizzou -4 @ Colorado - 69%
FL Int @ ArkSt - 17.5 - 66%
Mich -4 @ MSU - 69%
Army @ Air Force -16.5 - 67%
MidTenn -4 @ ULMon - 67%
Marshall @ CenFL -13.5 - 73%
ULaLa @ UTenn -27.5 - 69%
CMich @ Tol -8 - 69%
FSU @ BC -6.5 - 69%
ILL -12 @MINN 67%
Wazzou @ Cal -14.5 - 68%
SMU @ Houston -19 - 65%

That's a whopping fifteen contests with more than twice the players on one side of the game than the other. Conventional wisdom suggests oddsmakers want all games to be 50/50 so they can profit off the juice. I think it's more reasonable to suggest that the oddsmakers know when the public is too in love with certain teams, and they set a huge line and let the public hope their crush will cover it.

Another point you may notice: four of the games I picked for the weekend appear on this list. Doh!

Pros before Hos

Let's continue to prove how bad I am at picking the NFL. There are 8 games with a line that didn't scare me away from 'em, so here's 8 chances to be wrong.

Car @ Ten-4 Carolina doesn't even have an uninjured QB.

Cin @ Buf +1 Buffalo has alllllmost beaten 2 good teams, and the Bengals are not one of those. I could be making this pick because I feel sorry for Buffalo.

GB -1.5 @ KC Towelie can get all mad if he wants, but I'm not sure how the 'Chefs' are given a chance to hang with the Pack. This virtually gurantees I'm wrong. UPDATE: Found out Bubba Franks is out, and Sean Salisbury picked GB. I now choose the Chiefs.

SD -7 @ Min How exactly will the Vikes score enough to stay with 7 of the Bolts? They're talking to Jeff Hostetler about coming in to play QB. I wish that were my joke, but it isn't.

Was -3.5 @ NYJ Again, the Skins have offense and the Jets don't. Pennington is the best QB there and he's on the pine. I'd like it a lot more at -3, but there we are.

Sea @ Cle -1 Cleveland is at home and Seattle, while I like them, has issues. Shaun having a hurt wing and a retired FB is not a recipe for success on the road.

Hou +3 @ Oak The Texans are close every week, and Oakland is not. I may be making this pick because I like Houston.

Dal +3 @ Phi This seems so obvious it it clearly a trap. I may be making this pick because I'm terrible at picking the NFL. Also, if anyone remembers the way Tony Dungee's family tragedy made the Colts not win the Superbowl a coupla years ago, I think Andy Reid's recent troubles will hurt the Iggles here too.



Just a small reminder, we look at the spread for entretainment purposes only. If you actually bet these games, you will lose some, then bet more chasing it, and then you can't relax and enjoy the games. It's more fun to talk about it than to throw cash away at it.

Friday Fund Freezer

I know it's Thursday. Stick it. I'm putting this out on Thursday because I'm picking tonight's game. Thursday Thund Theezer just doesn't sound right.

Rather than rehashing why I like these picks, I'll just post em, and indicate how much of the betting public agrees with me on them. If you'll remember, the bandwagon picks went 9-12 last week.



VaTech +2.5 @ GaTech - 62%

Wake -1 @ UVa - 51%

Thanks to the Japsican for the Clemson and Michigan picks. Unless they lose, and then it's tempura burritos and high math scores and tequila jokes.

Michigan -4 @ MSU - 68%

Clemson -16 @ Duke - 74%


Iowa +1 @ NW - 53% and it's moved to 1.5.

TT -21 @ Baylor - 66%

Mizzou -4 @ Col - 69%

Rutgers +3 @ UConn - 49%, and we're down to +2. Shoulda grabbed it Tuesday.

FSU @ BC -6.5 - 69%

A&M @ OU -21 - 50%, thus confirming my belief that at least half the public is insane.

I really don't like how popular my picks are. I would not play any of these except the 50-50 one if I were you.

College Football Wednesday.. Because anything is better than the NBA

I just realized the NBA season started yesterday. Well, onto football.

Virginia Tech @ GA Tech -2.5. I must reiterate this point until the refs stop cheating... Do NOT bet against a home team on the East Coast on a Thursday night, be it ACC, Big East, Little 10 conference, whatever. Why would it not be rigged? Great point, ME. Let's just pretend stats don't matter for a minute... oh wait, they don't. Don't take a NO. 13 team when the oddsmakers are giving them points, it's a cardinal rule.

Vanderbilt +14 @ Florida. Why is no one giving this Vandy team any respect? The only blowout game they've encountered is at a tough Auburn stadium when they were unprepared. I realize the Swamp is a tough place to play, but Florida has only stepped up to competition that is "better" than them. Gator boots it is.

Texas @ Oklahoma State +3. Colt McCoy has been laid out more times this season than Willie's mom in a meat packing plant. This trend will continue where OSU plays well at home.

Kansas State -14 @ Iowa State. Don't overlook this game, where the sheep lovers will venture into Ames, where Corn Cobs, not diamonds, are a girl's best friend. ISU played OU hard, but don't count on it again.

Mizzou -3.5 @ Colorado. I really, really like this one, which means you shouldn't. The Mizzou team is strong & focused while Colorado just randomly beats people, which has moved the line down. This will be a very predictable game, with the total being under 57 also... Mizzou 34-20.

Just for kicks, Nebraksa +18.5 @ Kansas. Kansas will score 31. It's just up to Nebraska to score 1 TD and 2 field goals.

Why is the NBA season so damn long anyways? Now that we are the end of October, the BEST month of the year by far, they've decided to ruin the rest of the fall by showing basketball. If I wanted to see this many bricks I would build a damn house. Don't get me started on the WNBA, either. The NBA was thankful that it lost the 'worst league' designation when that travesty started up. I'm about to switch to the English Cricket Tour on ESPN 15.

Another column, perhaps funnier, hopefully coming tomorrow.

Mid Week Fantasy Fantasies

Today is the day the injury reports come out, and the day most of us set our fantasy lineups for the weekend. So Wednesday will be the day we look in on fantasy football each week, and you will get the information you need to win your matchups!

Look, every website and every sports channel is choking on fantasy sports tips, who to sit or start, and who is your best desperation waiver wire grab. So what can your humble Priapism Pickem writers offer you that you can't get somewhere else?

We have the Fantasy Fantasies! This is the inside info you dream of, that little edge that you can get over your friends. Check here every week and we'll provide you with the strategies and tips that'll make those daydreams you have, when you're sitting in your office all bored, about crushing your fantasy sports opponents come true!

This week we will deal with the most fun, yet least written about aspect of fantasy sports competition: psychological warfare. The dozens of magazines and hundreds of sites touting fantasy shortcuts to victory never mention this obviously vital topic. Why is that?

That's because the average fantasy sports writer is the modern day Dungeons & Dragons player, finally having found a way to exert some "control" over all the big mean jocks who made his life miserable back in the day. What better way to prove how much smarter you are than to decide what jock gets to play and which one doesn't, and even better get other people to believe it?

Well, I'm not all hater, because these egghead analysts have their uses. I certainly don't want to research every little detail about my 3rd WRs tendencies on grass vs turf, home and away, vs this cornerback, with that guy's past performance on every surface under ever condition. But what good does that really do YOU? Everyone else in your league has access to Hector and Victor's predictions too. So where's the edge? There's not one. And you ain't getting this kind of edge from the sort of guy who looks at sports like a video game.

Let's get beyond that boring numbers stuff, and get into the next phase in fantasy sports competition. You must attack your opponents, not just hope that whichever lineup you end up selecting (and isn't that email your friends to see which TE you should start working out great?) gets you the W.

This is a subtle art, but it's the only way you can hope to achieve victory - and beyond victory, crushing the souls of your opponents (who are presumably your friends or coworkers, and clearly humiliating them will have no future negative consequences). Let's get our hands dirty, shall we?

1. No one can trade but you.

Etiquette is huge here. Stop having any. Vote against EVERY trade. Email people individually and act as though you and he are the only ones who are smart enough to see that every trade is collusion! Not everyone will agree, but enough will be weak. Then use the league email function to send a league wide email informing all the players that on the pending trade between Bubba's Ballas and Miguel's Cleverly Disguised Phallic/Sports Reference All Stars looks suspicious. Then announce that rather than lodging a formal request for a veto vote, you'd like to give Bubba and
Miguel a chance to do the right thing and take down the trade. Tell them a close friend has told you in confidence that Bubba admitted there's some cash on the side, or some other arrangement to secure this obviously lopsided deal.

Now this won't work at first. It's important that the more people ask you about this the more you refuse to name your source. After all, we're mostly friends in this league, and you don't want to start a silly fight over a fantasy trade, right? Sure! Now the guys making the trade will immediately suspect one of their inner circle. There's always a weak link, and everyone who ignored your private email will now suspect someone else of having participated. Someone else will ask for a vote, the veto will follow, and you get to look like the good guy!

The mistrust and confusion you'll have sown with these methods will soon yield dividends. The first trade that gets voted down for no good reason will result in bitterness. No one will be able to make any moves except the one guy who everyone thinks is on their side.

2. The Whipping Boy method

There's one guy in the league that everyone thinks is a little crazy. You needed a 12th, he's your brother in law, or in your office and overheard the cool guys talking about a league, or whatever. His comments are weird, he drafts kickers in the 3rd round, he's just odd.

Constantly defend him in the forum. Keep everyone from publicly being too mean to him. Then get in touch with him privately and encourage his erratic behavior. Tell him how funny you think his completely bizarre comments are. Then provide a target for him with a little personal info on your nearest competition.

The more uncomfortable you make the guys in your league, the less likely they are to be online when you need to be there to snap up some great free agents! Less frequent visits to the site by your enemies = success for you!

You thought Whipping Boy meant for you to whip people into submission? Oh that's schoolkid stuff man. You are going to use someone else to emotionally defeat the enthusiasm of those who would challenge for your throne!

3. Constantly complain about the rules

Give a loser an excuse for losing, and he'll find a way to accommodate you. Don't just whine though, that creates bad will. Suggest changes for next season at the beginning of the current season. Foment as much discontent as you can without actually complaining. "Hey, you guys ever think that this category is too random, and not a real measure of skill?" Another good tactic is to find out who voted for what categories, then play both sides off against each other. Sow division, plant discord, and reap victory!

Employ these tactics properly, and your friends will never blame you for their lack of fun. their lack of fun will be your gain of glory, however, as they stop paying close attention to your league. Remind them that their other leagues may be more fun, and while they're not focused on you, you can scoop up all the good matchups. Your fantasy fantasies will come true with these fail safe tactics!

Early look at the underpaid football players

The NCAA should cut the players in on the giant money pie the oligarchy stuffs itself with. Greedy jerks! I can't see how allowing a bunch of undereducated, high testosterone guys who've been puffed up their whole lives and are surrounded by people who never tell them no and let them define their self worth purely by their value as athletes in on straight cash payments could lead to any problems, could it?

Well here's the beginning of the week line peeks. I am taking the team I show points on. A disturbing number of road teams this week.

VaTech +2.5 @ GaTech

Wake -1 @ UVa

Iowa +1 @ NW

TT -21 @ Baylor - It could be -35 and I might still not take the Bearlies. If I coached for this team I might pee on the bar too.

Texas @ OSU +3 - OSU plays tough at home, and Texas just does not impress.

Mizzou -4 @ Col

Rutgers +3 @ UConn - UConn is a lot of bad calls, some cheating, and a lot of rain and mud away form having 3 more losses. I may be making this pick b/c I still sting over Rutgers beating USF and b/c I really, really hate cheating UConn. Be warned.

Tulsa -6.5 @ - Tulane The Green Wave is 1-4 at home. And they're called the Green. Wave. Enough.

FSU @ BC -6.5 - FSU = poo. BC is at home. Does anyone think FSU is anywhere close to as good as VaTech at home? What was the score in that game? And now BC is at home.

A&M @ OU - 21 I am a little leery of this line, given the Aggies' habit of holding the ball for a long time. Let's bear in mind 2 historical facts that are on point here: first, Coach Fran's comfort with The Suck. Fran comforts the Suck, and takes it with him whenever he coaches. Point #2 is the history of angry revenge blowouts these teams have. Adding in McGee being slightly dinged up, the Ags' total lack of defense vs. the forward pass, and this smells like a lock.

What do you think? What picks are crazy, and which are brilliant? Do you have a great pick I missed?

Report Card

The grades are in, and once again it seems picking the NFL utterly eludes me. 4-5 for the weekend.

College football continues to be not so tough. If not for STUPID South Florida deciding a turnover or a penalty would be the best thing to do inside the opponent's red zone, I'd have had my best week of the season. 5-2 still ain't too shabby! I hope everyone jumped on that Troy pick. Those Trojans really tore up... wait. The Trojans really penetrated the opposing... no wait. Ah, let's just say go Troy!

All the cool kids are doing it!

My NFL record is terrible vs. the spread. However, the teams with over 60% of public support went 5-1. What would you give up if YOU could go 5-1? Only the Giants failed to cover. Musta been the bangers and mash.

We'll keep track of this, but right now just following the crowd seems smarter than doing research, watching games, and making your own picks.

It's on TV.. so you have to bet it!

I'm going to be totally honest and say that I would never bet this football game if it was a Sunday noon game. I think I might end up switching to rubbing alcohol halfway through the game to kill the pain. It will most likely be a battle of wills, with Brett Favre needing to exercise his in the 3rd quarter.

This is what this game is going to look like:





All said and done, however, the Broncos are going to win this one. They seem to be clicking on all cylinders, while GB is not, and the one-dimensional Pack are going to eat it on the road. By 'it' I mean whatever the guy in the picture had for lunch for the past 10 years.

Broncos -3 Prediction: 24-17

Over the Cliff!!!

Sadly my friends, the college football weekend is over. In our never ending search for trends, we're tracking the games that weren't even close to 50/50 in public support. Last week there were 12 games which had at least 60% of the action on one side.

Interestingly, NONE of this heavy support was on the side of an underdog. Bandwagon indeed!

So how did these overwhelmingly popular one sided bets do? They went 9-12. That's right. Kind of flies in the face of conventional wisdom stating oddsmakers want all the action balanced with the lines, doesn't it? It seems when bettors get all worked up into a lather, they miss. Well, so far we have a very small sample size, so we'll keep track of this for you. For now though, just finding what teams have 60%+ of public support is not the path to success.

Bandwagon Betting in the Pros

Much like the lemming post for the college set, here we'll take a quick look at the NFL action. Only 13 games, and just over half of them are stunningly close to 50/50 in the minds of the masses. The remaining 6 matchups have over 60% of the action leaning one way. Let's look in.

CLE -3 @ STL 65% of the action says the winless Rams don't get within 3. I personally think the Rams win this one outright.

IND -6.5 @ CAR This is a really, really big number. 82% of you call the linesmakers crazy, saying one TD is not enough of a handicap to stop the Peyton Monster.

NYG -9.5 @ MIA This one's in London, and the Phins' problems are well documented. A team as inconsistent as the Giants makes me leery of a line that big, but 68% of you think I'm a vag.

PIT -3.5 @ CIN The Bungles are back, and 61% of you side with Steeley McBeam and his creepy gayness.

HOU +9.5 @ SD What smoke? Finally the bandwagon rolls for a home team, the only one this week to get such overwhelming support! 63% for the Bolts.

NO -2 @ SF I must say, I strongly agree with the 64% of you that are playing the Saints this week.

Now that the Lopsiders have been noted, let me sneak in my NFL picks. My season loss rate is staggering so far, so I'll shove these in at the bottom of this post, and maybe no one will notice.

Rams +3
Indy -6.5
Vikings +1
Pitt -3.5
Bucs -3.5
Saints -2

So now you know who to bet on; opposite me is the path to glory!

The Lemmings are running!

The weekly feature in which we examine where the money is on the football lines. Even with the point spread, sometimes the betting public gets heavy on one side of a contest. I will bring you these games, let you know where the groupthink is stuck, and ask you what you think. Then we'll track em after they play and see if the lemmings went off the cliff or not.

Houston -6 at UTEP a huge 2:1 chunk of the public s riding the Cougars. 64% is a long way from 50-50. Interestingly, this line opened at 3.5, and the total was 57.5 Now the 8 books represented on covers.com have all moved to 5.5 or 6, and the total has risen to 74.5... except one! One book still has the total at 57.5 I'm no expert, but it seems to me a smart bettor would go bet the over at that book, and likely clean UP.

NMST +29.5 at Hawaii Wow, that's a big, big line, and even more impressively, a whopping 69% of the betting public is on the Rainbow Warrior bandwagon!

Troy -4.5 at ArkSt Looks like Daddy's analysis is not the only one to like the Trojans here. 69% are riding on the team from Troy here.

NoIll +3.5 at Tol I'll be honest kids, I know less than bubkis about the Toledo Rockets, and almost as little about Northern Illinois, but a monstrous 70% of the betting public is undeterred by the Rockets' 3-5 record and thinks they'll have no trouble beating the 1-7 Huskies by 4.

Duke +17.5 at FSU That's a big, big line, but Duke is a bad, bad team. 60% like the 'Noles.

UCLA +6 at WshSt Wazzou getting only 40% of the love hosting the Bruins.

Ohio +7 at BG Bowling green has 62% of the public believing! Or at least disbelieving in the Bobcats.

ULM +6 at FlAtl Florida Atlantic (who names a Florida team the Owls?!?) has a monstrous share of common belief, over 70%. It could be that only 10 people bet on this game and only 3 went to UL in Monroe, too.

Idaho +17.5 at Nev I tell you what, I don't think I'll be choosing any 3-4 teams to cover 18 point lines, even if their hapless opponents are 1-7.

UVa -3.5 at NCST Finally a road favorite! Maybe it's the 7-1 vs 2-5 record, but twice as many people are thinking Cavs. That's a tiny line for such differing records, but I've done no research whatsoever.

USF -4 at Uconn Just over 2/3 of the public agrees with me: Uconn cannot possibly hang within 4 here.

SMU +13.5 at Tulsa Are there people who just look for 1 win teams on the road and bet against them no matter the spread? Almost 70% of the public has done that here.

AZ +3.5 at Wash The Huskies have 2/3 of the action on them.

Mi-O +13.5 at Van Vandy is impressing people. Almost 67% of the people. With a 2 TD line. Give me a moment, I grew up in the SEC and all this love for the Commodores is freaking me out, man!

NW +12.5 at PU I don't know if Purdue actually uses PU, but I did. I know nothing about this matchup, but they both have winning records and 13 is a lot of points. Purdue isn't exactly an historic tradition of football power. 65% say I'm wrong to be skeert of that line.

IU +8.5 at Wisc Only one game apart in record, and IU has looked pretty decent this season, and the Badgers are still 3 FG favored? 63% are unimpressed with Hoosier football.

BSt +14 t UIL Illinois has been exciting people, and 72% of the public thinks the Fighting Illini will handle the visiting Cardinals by a pair of TDs. Or maybe no one wants to bet on a team named Ball State. heh heh.

Akron +1.5 at Buff The Bulls draw 2/3 of support in this battle of losers.

BoiSt -3 at FrSt Everyone loves the Broncos after that incredible defeat of OU in the best bowl game ending ever, and they're getting 68% of the love. Poor Fresno State Bulldogs.

UNC +5.5 at Wake I like the Demon Deacons here too, just like almost 70% of you.

And finally we come to the Lopsided Lemming Lock of the weekend! Kentucky is hosting Miss State, and they are favored by a smooth 14 points. It's hard to argue with the Wildcats this season, and soon in Starkville they'll have to realize the Sylvester Croom experiment has failed. a too-many-people-like-this-to-not-be-worried 77% of the players like the Cats here!

Next week we see how smart these Lopsiders are, and we also will require 63% to make it into this column from now on.

Friday Fund Freezer

Well we spoke of some college games earlier in the week, and now it's time to finalize the week's games to play. Let me say for the record that I think the financial rules and arrangements the NCAA keeps college athletes under is nothing short of exploitation! So now let's see if we can further exploit them for our own benefit instead. These are the games to lock up your imaginary, well within your personal limits, completely for entertainment bankroll on for the weekend.

Let's see first where we stand on our early looks.

WVa -6 at Rutgers. Moved from -6.5 earlier in the week. WVa will be up so fast so much, Ray Rice won't even get the chance to work on his Heisman stats. The Scarlet Knights can raise the drawbridge and prepare all the boiling oil they want, but they won't be able to stop the second best rushing team in the country.



Cal +3 at ASU. Other than the overrated disease of "but they're undefeated" keeping ASU the favorite here, let's remember that if not for an under seasoned QB failing to spike it, Cal would be undefeated and #1 in the country right now.

(Get it? Wine, gayness, bear... they're California Bears... ah nevermind.)






(Thanks to southerngent.org for the pic.)


KU -3 at Texas A&M. This line was 2.5 earlier in the week, and I sure hope you jumped on it then when I suggested it. Now lookit, I love me some Aggies, but does anyone really think that the embattled Coach Fran is going to be the team to do what K State and Colorado couldn't? A&M taking down the Jayhawks would be a bigger story than KState beating the Horns and the Buffs derailing Oklahoma. I don't know anyone who thinks that the Aggies are better than the Wildcats. The wagering public is favoring the Massive Mangione's squad at about a 6 to 4 clip right now.

The bell tolls for thee, Franchione. Hey that rhymes! Towelie, you say it rhymes, admit that it rhymes!

Those were the opening lines we liked. Let's take a late Friday look at them now. I'd like to add to them one more game. Play all four of these!

Troy -4.5 at Arkansas State. Troy beat Oklahoma State soundly, and their only 2 losses are at Florida and opening day at Arkansas. The Trojans are tearing through their conference with bad intentions. I will let Towelie make the tearing trojans jokes. Just load up on Troy to punish the Indians. Their only common opponent, ULMonroe, beat ArkSt 30-13 while losing to Troy 24-7.

Good luck, imaginary sports bettors! Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only kids. As I was discussing with a good friend of mine last weekend, pictured here at right, (we'll call him JD), it's usually less fun to watch a great football game when you've got real money on it. So stick to play money and points on paper, and bragging rights with your friends.

What I MEANT to say...

Is that you should have picked Boston College +3 @ Virginia Tech. Indeed, you should have logged on to your favorite offshore gambling site, picked Boston college to win at 5-1 (if they even spread it at that point) on the in-game betting with 2:00 remaining and made a buttload of money.

Let's break this one down. I'm not an expert on defensive manuevering, but just pretend for a minute that you have used a combination of sparce man/ stifling zone defense to break up passes and nearly intercept about 5 balls. While you are smothering their receivers, you also manage to bring pressure to the "Heisman candidate by default" and cause him to fumble numerous times. Of course, recovering some of these fumbles might have helped. But I digress.

Let's then pretend that you are a defensive back and your coach changes the plan to a prevent defense (that is, to prevent you from winning) up by 10 points with 2:00 remaing . You might think this a little strange, but in the heat of the battle you have no choice but to follow your fearless leader. You know, the one that makes 7 figures while you get a $30,000 scholarship. The team that you stifled in the first 58 minutes of the game suddenly puts up 14 hard earned points because you're not in the position to use your athletic ability.

But I forget that once again that I am successful! Another loss for me means another victory for any bloggers that decide to bet against me. I knew Virginia Tech would do something stupid to screw this one up - including the newest NCAA penalty which forbids brushing shoulders with the kicker. That's going to be one hell of a rash.


Recap

Week of 10/15 1-4
Week of 10/22 0-1
Total 1-5

Total money made @ $100 bets betting AGAINST me (@ -110): $390

Thursday Night CFB: Get behind before the weekend starts!

Ahh, it's Thursday night again, isn't it? Time for home dogs to consistently cover once again while I bet on the statistical favorite. It's a good thing the home team is favored, otherwise I could be sure of a 0-8 Thursday night record tonight.

Towelie's pick of the night: Boston College +3 @ Virginia Tech
Towelie's lock pick of the night: Doritos Over/Under 50 chips @ my mouth.

When I first saw the VTech-BC line, my mouth literally opened wide enough to stick my foot inside, which will most likely happen when I lose and you profit from my horrible analysis.

Quality wins have been scarce for both teams, but BC's toughest opponent has been Georgia Tech... seriously. Notre Dame also put up quite a fight. VTech lost to LSU in a spectacular display of suckiness that rivals Mark Mangino when he inhales his post-game rack of ribs.

The public factor also has to be taken into account... Let's hear it - this is a Trap Game! The public is going to jump on a No. 2 ranked team being given 3 points , proving profitable for us sleeper VTech bettors.

As for the Doritos, put your mortgage on it.

Throw Away Thursday

Given my sterling NFL record for the season (roughly 40% correct) i think you can just blindly bet against me and show a small profit.

But THIS week i feel really good about these picks! I'm avoiding the trap games! I'm going to bet enough to et caught up! I'm due! I have a new system! Did i miss any sports bettor garbage speak?

Chi -4.5 vs detroit. give me the lions, please, coming off a convincing win vs the awful bears who squeaked one out against a sub par team. games like this make me think i'm reading the line wrong. how is detroit a dog here?

Pitt -3.5 @ Cinci. i think Holly Mangold's team could cover 3.5 on this bengals defense.

Tampa Bay -4 vs Jax. I would like another dog here please. Jacksonville is the UF Gators of the NFL... they are WAY the best 2 loss team in the league. Oh wait, they just lost their starting QB. Who cares! run run run!

NO -3 @ SF. The offense is back for the saints, plus a bunch of people who got flooded out and whose lives are ruined from being dependent on government instead of themselves will be sad if the saints don't get back to winning.

NE -16.5 vs. WAS Ahad, this one's for you. In a HUGE upset, the pats only win by 12 here.

Denver -3 @ GB. Packers... no team that is at least mediocre or better fails to win in the NFL after a bye week. and it's at home. please.

A lot of games, but i like em. the ones i would actually risk play money chips on in a completely for-entertainment, fictitious wagering envioronment are: GB, NO, Det.

Early look at the underpaid football players

Randy Moss is not human. Those 2 50 yd TD catches were like nothing I've seen in the NFL. Even more fun since he decided to catch one of 'em without using his hands. Elbows are underrated as part of a wide receiver's toolkit.

OK, on to the early look at college games.

I like WVa -6.5 at Rutgers. How can Rutgers stop that sick offense of Slaton and White?

I like Cal +3 at ASU.

OH DEAR JOHN DAVID CROW! KU is only a 2.5 pt fave over A&M?!?! I need to bet my left nut and all disposable income on this game. what?!?!???? i have been to KU and A&M websites, see no news... have no idea why this line is this small. Woohoo, I'm all in!

What I MEANT to say was...

Here's what I meant to say for last night's game:

South Florida @ Rutgers +2: South Florida has been good so far this year, but they have several key weaknesses. I still feel like they haven't perfected the old fumbleroosky play on kick returns. If South Florida were to block a field goal, I feel like they would try to fumble the ball forward to get a touchdown at all costs, forgetting the fact that if you do fumble it, it is a live ball, and the other team can recover the ball and go back the other way.

They also haven't perfected the illegal forward pass. If they had the ball and decided to risk throwing it forward when there are 3 Rutgers players around to get a few extra yards, they couldn't do it convincingly enough to convice the refs to not give them a penalty afer watching the instant replay. Nevermind the fact that you're not supposed to give out penalties based on instant replay.

I also think that South Florida doesn't realize that when the refs have money on the game, the boundaries for late hits out of bounds starts 3 feet before the white line. This will probably cost them sometime during the game. Also, just touching the defender will result in a push-off penalty.

What South Florida also doesn't know is that their penalties will come on game changing plays on Thursday night. Every time they make a spectacular play to turn the tide of the game, the refs
will probably bring it back.

Bryan High will win this game straight up, they don't even need the points. Oops, I mean Rutgers.

Towelie says:

Games I like this week:

South Florida -2.5 @ Rutgers: Rutgers has some big-game potential and is a decent team, but South Florida is getting up for every game. They won't let their guard down on this one.

Cincinatti -9.5 @ Pitt: Cincinatti let one slip last week at Louisville, but this one won't be a contest: Pitt's QB has a 1:2 TD to INT ratio, and their D allows 147 yards a game against a Cincinatti running game that averages 178 yards a game.

Florida @ Kentucky +7 : I think Kentucky had a little reality check against South Carolina, and without the turnovers, may have beat them. Of course, both teams have had quality losses, and Kentucky's run D is worse than Florida's, but on the road, Florida allows 70 more yards than at home. With the 7 points at home I believe in Kentucky.

Just for good measure, and I probably won't bet on:

Texas A&M +2 @ Nebraska: Nebraska has lost all faith in their program, has huge gaps in their run defense (allowing over 200+ yards a game) we have a strong running game, at least.

Texas -25 @ Baylor: Texas likes to run over Big 12 teams, and it's not like Baylor is going to put up a fight. If they think they had a chance against any big 12 team this year, they would have at least tried with us.