Friday, October 26, 2007

The Lemmings are running!

The weekly feature in which we examine where the money is on the football lines. Even with the point spread, sometimes the betting public gets heavy on one side of a contest. I will bring you these games, let you know where the groupthink is stuck, and ask you what you think. Then we'll track em after they play and see if the lemmings went off the cliff or not.

Houston -6 at UTEP a huge 2:1 chunk of the public s riding the Cougars. 64% is a long way from 50-50. Interestingly, this line opened at 3.5, and the total was 57.5 Now the 8 books represented on covers.com have all moved to 5.5 or 6, and the total has risen to 74.5... except one! One book still has the total at 57.5 I'm no expert, but it seems to me a smart bettor would go bet the over at that book, and likely clean UP.

NMST +29.5 at Hawaii Wow, that's a big, big line, and even more impressively, a whopping 69% of the betting public is on the Rainbow Warrior bandwagon!

Troy -4.5 at ArkSt Looks like Daddy's analysis is not the only one to like the Trojans here. 69% are riding on the team from Troy here.

NoIll +3.5 at Tol I'll be honest kids, I know less than bubkis about the Toledo Rockets, and almost as little about Northern Illinois, but a monstrous 70% of the betting public is undeterred by the Rockets' 3-5 record and thinks they'll have no trouble beating the 1-7 Huskies by 4.

Duke +17.5 at FSU That's a big, big line, but Duke is a bad, bad team. 60% like the 'Noles.

UCLA +6 at WshSt Wazzou getting only 40% of the love hosting the Bruins.

Ohio +7 at BG Bowling green has 62% of the public believing! Or at least disbelieving in the Bobcats.

ULM +6 at FlAtl Florida Atlantic (who names a Florida team the Owls?!?) has a monstrous share of common belief, over 70%. It could be that only 10 people bet on this game and only 3 went to UL in Monroe, too.

Idaho +17.5 at Nev I tell you what, I don't think I'll be choosing any 3-4 teams to cover 18 point lines, even if their hapless opponents are 1-7.

UVa -3.5 at NCST Finally a road favorite! Maybe it's the 7-1 vs 2-5 record, but twice as many people are thinking Cavs. That's a tiny line for such differing records, but I've done no research whatsoever.

USF -4 at Uconn Just over 2/3 of the public agrees with me: Uconn cannot possibly hang within 4 here.

SMU +13.5 at Tulsa Are there people who just look for 1 win teams on the road and bet against them no matter the spread? Almost 70% of the public has done that here.

AZ +3.5 at Wash The Huskies have 2/3 of the action on them.

Mi-O +13.5 at Van Vandy is impressing people. Almost 67% of the people. With a 2 TD line. Give me a moment, I grew up in the SEC and all this love for the Commodores is freaking me out, man!

NW +12.5 at PU I don't know if Purdue actually uses PU, but I did. I know nothing about this matchup, but they both have winning records and 13 is a lot of points. Purdue isn't exactly an historic tradition of football power. 65% say I'm wrong to be skeert of that line.

IU +8.5 at Wisc Only one game apart in record, and IU has looked pretty decent this season, and the Badgers are still 3 FG favored? 63% are unimpressed with Hoosier football.

BSt +14 t UIL Illinois has been exciting people, and 72% of the public thinks the Fighting Illini will handle the visiting Cardinals by a pair of TDs. Or maybe no one wants to bet on a team named Ball State. heh heh.

Akron +1.5 at Buff The Bulls draw 2/3 of support in this battle of losers.

BoiSt -3 at FrSt Everyone loves the Broncos after that incredible defeat of OU in the best bowl game ending ever, and they're getting 68% of the love. Poor Fresno State Bulldogs.

UNC +5.5 at Wake I like the Demon Deacons here too, just like almost 70% of you.

And finally we come to the Lopsided Lemming Lock of the weekend! Kentucky is hosting Miss State, and they are favored by a smooth 14 points. It's hard to argue with the Wildcats this season, and soon in Starkville they'll have to realize the Sylvester Croom experiment has failed. a too-many-people-like-this-to-not-be-worried 77% of the players like the Cats here!

Next week we see how smart these Lopsiders are, and we also will require 63% to make it into this column from now on.

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